View Full Version : Have I made a mistake?

08-17-2005, 12:48 PM
Assume the flop leaves you with 10 outs.

Your probability of improving your hand by the river is:
[1 - (37/47)(36/46)] * 100 ~= 38.4%
Your probability of improving your hand immediately on the turn is:
(10 * 100) / 47 ~= 21.28%
After not improving on the turn your probability of improving in the river is:
(10 * 100) / 46 ~= 21.74%

Why does this math indicate that the probabilty increased for the river draw over the turn draw?

08-17-2005, 01:00 PM
because you've calculated the probability GIVEN THAT you missed on the turn, not the probability of hitting your card on the river regardless what happened on the turn.

08-17-2005, 01:21 PM
Thanks, so the math looks OK to you?

08-17-2005, 01:22 PM
there's one less card in the deck on the river, so the odds of you hitting increases slightly.

08-17-2005, 01:29 PM
Odds of catching at least one of your 10 outs by the river:

1 - C(37,2)/C(47,2) = ~38.4%

08-17-2005, 02:08 PM
Thanks All. For a moment I thought I was crazy. Wait a minute, it may be correct but that doesn't mean I'm sane.