View Full Version : Probability Masters.....um...help..

08-13-2005, 03:15 PM
Hi. I have had problems with probablity (figuring it out, namely) since I began playing poker. I picked up a book last night that finally spelled it out in words that clicked. I think I am getting a good feel for it. I would like to make sure that I understand it correctly. Thanks for the time, I very much appreciate it.

First you figure out how many outs you have, minus outs that may give your opponent a better hand (number of cards in deck/number of outs). Then, you compare the size of the pot with the bet to you (pot odds).

The author then loses me. He says to figure out implied pot odds (ie: limit poker) and considering how many bets you think there will be in future rounds. I play NL and don't see how this could be a possibility. Should I skip this?

He then says to compare the implied pot odds to the odds against improving.

With this statement, it seems I would have to figure out those implied pot odds. Furthermore, he doesn't say how you should compare the two. Would you want them to be fairly close odds? I figured that if the pot odds were better than the odds against improving that it would be a good bet.

Thank you very much for reading and responding.

08-13-2005, 05:16 PM
This isnt really a good question to post in this section. Its better off you post it in the PLNL forums because you are asking some very beginner-ish questions on NL. But anyway, NL is all about implied odds. The way you "calculate" it is simply reads you have on someone combined with common sense.

The question you should be asking yourself is, can you make up for the money lost by "chasing," if you hit your draw? In NL you have to consider your implied odds, which is how large your stack is compared to your opponents.

If you and your opponent have large stacks, obviously you can play more hands preflop and draw more liberally for the chance to take your opponents large stack. If you are your opponents have smaller stacks, you cant play as liberally preflop and you have to draw with better odds. You must also factor in your opponents tendency to be willing to put in lots of money into the pot once you hit that draw...

08-13-2005, 06:10 PM
Say that there is $500 in the pot, you are heads up with an oppenent on the flop. You have JT and you oppenent has A8
The flop comes AK4. Your oppenent bets $100, giving you 6-1 from the pot versus your 11-1 shot hit a Queen on the turn, so based on pot odds you should fold. Now let's say your oppenent will go all in for $600 more on the turn. Now the implied odds give you 12-1 on your 11-1 shot, so you should call the bet on the flop.

That's implied odds. Of course in a real game you do not know what your opponent will do, so you have to use your judgement.

08-13-2005, 11:36 PM
you gotta figure out your implied odds in nl
you do that by figuring how much your opponent will call if you make your hand
you then add that to your pot odds and you have a more accurate veiw also this adds a little risk because your calculations might be wrong on implied odds but that will happen somtimes

08-14-2005, 03:36 AM
A flush draw is a good example. You have a 19.6% chance to improve to a flush.

Let's say the pot has $100 on the turn, and your opponent bets $50. You don't have the odds to call with a flush draw:

(.196 * 150) + (.804 * -50) = -10.8.

You lose $10.8, according to pot odds.

If you figure that you can make more than that extra $10.8 when you do make your flush, then a calling is OK.

At least that is my interpretation of it.

08-15-2005, 05:28 PM
Its better off you post it in the PLNL forums because you are asking some very beginner-ish questions on NL.

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I don't believe those forums are up right now. I posted here because I figured that the bright minds that visit here might help me along my way in figuring this out.

Other than my confusion in figuring out my pot odds, which has been cleared up, this was really just a yes or no post - am I going about figuring this correctly? Thank you for the responses.