View Full Version : What has higher probability?

03-18-2003, 03:26 AM
I feel like when I play that I make more flushes than straights...
given that u start with a suited connected hadn in holdem
87s or something, what is more probable?
flopping a flush draw or flopping an open ended straight draw,
what about flopping the flush versus flopping a straight.

what about holding AKs? since making a straight is a bit harder and u are drawing to the nut flush in those cases.

03-18-2003, 08:16 AM
I get that the probability of flopping a 4-flush or a flush with 87s is

3* 11/50 10/49 * (52 - 13)/48 + 11/50 *10/49 * 9/48
= 0.117857.

For the probability of flopping an open ended 4-straight or
a straight I get

(4^3 + 4^2*(52 - 20)*3 + 2*4*6*3 + 4^2*2*3*3) / b[50,3]
= 0.103673

where b[x,y] = x!/y!/(x-y)!

These computations are tricky so don't believe these numbers until someone else verifies them.

Ray Zee
03-19-2003, 04:05 PM
you have to add in the gutshot straights you get to make and take into consideration the three flushes that fill out.
then you will see straights are easier to make, at least for those that play correctly after the flop.