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dbirider16
08-07-2005, 02:49 AM
I have seen this posted before a few times but I can't find it. I'm looking for a tool where you can type in how many bb's you have at a limit, how much of a winner you are (like 1bb/100) and it will give you your chance of going broke. specificly i'm trying to figure out the risk of ruin for a 1bb/100 player with 100bb's.

Thanks

BruceZ
08-07-2005, 02:28 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I have seen this posted before a few times but I can't find it. I'm looking for a tool where you can type in how many bb's you have at a limit, how much of a winner you are (like 1bb/100) and it will give you your chance of going broke. specificly i'm trying to figure out the risk of ruin for a 1bb/100 player with 100bb's.

[/ QUOTE ]

bankroll formulas (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&amp;Number=207100&amp;page=&amp;view=&amp;sb=5&amp;o =&amp;fpart=all&amp;vc=1)

You also need your standard deviation.

dbirider16
08-07-2005, 02:51 PM
Thank's but that formula is really confusing for me. I tried going over it in a calculator a bunch of times but can't work it out right.

What would a basic risk of ruin formula of a close to average player making 1bb/hr single tabling 5/10 with a \$1000 bankroll be.

I'm trying to figure this out for someone else. I think he plays 6max on pokerstars. Thanks.

BruceZ
08-07-2005, 03:20 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Thank's but that formula is really confusing for me. I tried going over it in a calculator a bunch of times but can't work it out right.

What would a basic risk of ruin formula of a close to average player making 1bb/hr single tabling 5/10 with a \$1000 bankroll be.

I'm trying to figure this out for someone else. I think he plays 6max on pokerstars. Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Again, this depends heavily on his standard deviation, but let's assume it is 10 bb for 1 hr, which might be typical of a 1 bb/hr winner. Then his \$1000 bankroll at 5/10 is 100 bb, and his risk of going broke is

exp(-2*1*100/10^2) = 13.5%.

BruceZ
08-07-2005, 03:29 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Thank's but that formula is really confusing for me. I tried going over it in a calculator a bunch of times but can't work it out right.

What would a basic risk of ruin formula of a close to average player making 1bb/hr single tabling 5/10 with a \$1000 bankroll be.

I'm trying to figure this out for someone else. I think he plays 6max on pokerstars. Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Again, this depends heavily on his standard deviation, but let's assume it is 10 bb for 1 hr, which might be typical of a 1 bb/hr winner. Then his \$1000 bankroll at 5/10 is 100 bb, and his risk of going broke is

exp(-2*1*100/10^2) = 13.5%.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just noticed that you said he plays 6 max. That could easily make his standard deviation significantly higher, perhaps twice has high, but you should really measure it. Poker Tracker software will compute your standard deviation and your risk of ruin; however, if it gives you a significantly different risk of ruin than the formula I gave you, then don't use it, as this has been found to be computed wrong in one other software package.

dbirider16
08-07-2005, 03:46 PM
Alright thanks for the help. I really don't know any specifics just that he has a gambling problem, lost his entire life savings from poker(he's under 21 i think) and he thinks now that he's playing 5/10 with a good bankroll (75bb's actually). He thinks this is fine because he is better then the other players at this level. I'm trying to prove that even a proven winning player with a low bankroll has a good chance at going broke. I'm probably wasting my time though. These kind of players will always find excuses to gamble.

BruceZ
08-07-2005, 03:50 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Alright thanks for the help. I really don't know any specifics just that he has a gambling problem, lost his entire life savings from poker(he's under 21 i think) and he thinks now that he's playing 5/10 with a good bankroll (75bb's actually). He thinks this is fine because he is better then the other players at this level. I'm trying to prove that even a proven winning player with a low bankroll has a good chance at going broke. I'm probably wasting my time though. These kind of players will always find excuses to gamble.

[/ QUOTE ]

If we make his standard deviation 20 bb for 1 hr, which it could well be, then a 75 bb bankroll gives him a 68.7% risk of ruin.

Anyone have any good estimates for SD/win_rate for 6 max?

uuDevil
08-07-2005, 04:54 PM
[ QUOTE ]

Anyone have any good estimates for SD/win_rate for 6 max?

[/ QUOTE ]

Some SD numbers are here. (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&amp;Number=2683727&amp;page=&amp;view=&amp;s b=5&amp;o=&amp;vc=1)

It seems that SH limit Hold'em doesn't really have much higher SD than full table.