PDA

View Full Version : Correct to fold aces

bambi
08-03-2005, 04:35 AM
somebody sits in at a 5/10 nl with \$50, game and live stradles, for \$10, you are dealt pocket A's on the button, you have played with the stradler before and seen him do this, you limp and he gets 8 callers to his \$10, including the blinds, and when it is back to him he raises to \$40, everyone folds, so there is \$110 in the pot, and you have the option of folding calling, or raising, if you were to raise him all in, he is then going to be getting 160/10 or 17/1 for the last call, his call would be mathematically correct?

As pokerstove has it at

Hand 1: 85.2037 % 84.93% 00.27% { AhAs }
Hand 2: 14.7963 % 14.52% 00.27% { random }

So that means if he has made a correct last call, and it is a +ev situation for him, it must be -ev for you.

So you shouldnt raise him all in, but simply call?

Thoughts, or comments would be appreciated

LetYouDown
08-03-2005, 09:15 AM
That was way to complicated/unnecessary for this early in the morning. Think of it this way. In a \$5-10 NL game where you're heads up...first hand, you both have \$1000. No blinds. He's first to act and bets \$999. You have A-A. According to your thought process...raising him his last dollar is all but giving money away.

In the scenario you described, there's a lot of dead money. You're both correct to be in the pot until the very end...and you are correct to put him all in. Every dollar he puts in this pot, he's going to lose \$.83 out of that dollar...but he's gaining enough equity from the dead money to make it profitable. Everyone that limp/folded are the people that lose the most here.

Tom1975
08-03-2005, 10:00 AM
[ QUOTE ]
So that means if he has made a correct last call, and it is a +ev situation for him, it must be -ev for you

[/ QUOTE ]

This is incorrect. Once there's money in the pot, it is possible for a play to be +EV for both players, as is the case here.

diebitter
08-03-2005, 10:01 AM
[ QUOTE ]

So that means if he has made a correct last call, and it is a +ev situation for him, it must be -ev for you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not true. Just because it's +EV for you, it doesn't mean it's -EV for you. You could both be +EV.

Example: you have AJs, and oppo has AJs in a different suit. You're at the river, and the board shows 2 of your suit, and 2 of his. The pot has 5 BB. Do you see that a call is +EV in both cases?

08-03-2005, 02:14 PM
1. It is +EV for you to bet.
2. For him, it is +EV to call your bet.
3. For you, having him call your bet is -EV (even with Aces you would prefer the certain money).
4. If you could bet enough to make it a slight mistake for him to call, you would like to do that, but he only has \$10 left. However, you are ahead, and giving a "free" card would be a mistake.

Bco1/75
08-03-2005, 07:56 PM
Yes he would be getting 17/1 odds to call your all in, but by just calling he is getting infinite odds.....What else would you do? The somebody who got into this situation where you want to only call with best hand because pushing would give too good of odds made the mistake before this decision cam up. Actually the error was made when they sat down at a 5/10 NL table with \$50....you shouldn't sit at a 3/6 Limit table with only \$50 bucks......

BettyBoopAA
08-03-2005, 08:16 PM
do you want to risk another \$10 when your a 85% favorite?
The other players made the mistake by folding to a random hand with those odds to call.

08-03-2005, 09:40 PM
If you are a 85% favorite with AA doesnt that give you +ev and the other player -ev?

TomCollins
08-03-2005, 09:56 PM
Depends if there is dead money in the pot. If there is a million dollars in the pot, he has +EV to call.

tylerdurden
08-03-2005, 10:08 PM
[ QUOTE ]
3. For you, having him call your bet is -EV (even with Aces you would prefer the certain money).

[/ QUOTE ]

How can it possibly be -EV for you if he calls your bet? It might be less +EV than if he folds, but it's still +EV.

To the original poster: as others have noted, both you and the other player are in a +EV situation now because of a series of -EV mistakes that the other players made leading upto the current situation.