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View Full Version : Greetings. Assume you are suited, what is the plobability of hitting?

VivaLaViking
08-02-2005, 04:48 PM
Assuming you are suited and a flop follows, what is the probability of flopping the flush?

I reason as follow but this may be incottect.

[ QUOTE ]

(11 C 1) (10 C 1) (9 C 1)
----------------------------
C(50,3)

990
----- x 100 ~ 5.05%
19600

[/ QUOTE ]

Can anyone verify this math?

jba
08-02-2005, 05:02 PM
if you start suited the chance the flop will come all of your suit is

C(11,3)/C(50,3) * 100 = .84%

note that I rephrased your question. if your starting cards are connected a few of the 165 flops that are all your suit will actually give you a straight flush not a flush...

edit to add: the problem with your formula is you are taking the cards one at a time in the numerator but all three at once in the denominator. you can take the cards one at a time and rewrite it this way:

C(11,1)/C(50,1) * C(10,1)/C(49/1) * C(9,1)/C(48,1)

which gives the same result

VivaLaViking
08-02-2005, 05:12 PM
Thank you, I was also considering (11 C 3). As a note for a straight flush other cards outside of connectors will result in a SF. Last week I was dealt 3 4 suited. The flop came A 2, and 5. Wish I could say I got the SF but alas I folded preflop.

jba
08-02-2005, 05:33 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Thank you, I was also considering (11 C 3). As a note for a straight flush other cards outside of connectors will result in a SF. Last week I was dealt 3 4 suited. The flop came A 2, and 5. Wish I could say I got the SF but alas I folded preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

do you not consider 34 connected?

I think we have a misunderstanding.

spaminator101
08-02-2005, 07:26 PM
its easier this way
11/50*10/49*9/48=990/11760=0.084183673469387755102040816326531

VivaLaViking
08-02-2005, 09:22 PM
Yes, I wanted to see a flop with 3, 4 suited but when it came to me there were two raises.