View Full Version : Game theory question.

08-01-2005, 09:28 PM
Assume that you are matched in a heads up freeze out no limit tournament. Your opponent has one play--all in on every hand. What percentage of the time will he beat you?

I don't know if this is important or not to the question, but assume that you each start with 1,000 chips with blinds at 5 & 10.

Has anyone run any computer simulations on this type of thing?


08-01-2005, 10:05 PM
Hmm, I'll go with 27% of the time. Coincidentally, that's the percentage of the time 1RH will beat AA-TT, AKs-AJs, KQs, and AKo, the only hands I'd be calling with if I had 100BB. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

08-01-2005, 10:13 PM
If your only play is to call his all-in, he'd win 50% of the time. Of course, I know you are looking for a better answer...

08-01-2005, 10:21 PM
Sklansky says more than 1/3 of the time in TP4AP

08-01-2005, 11:09 PM
How did you calculate the 27% of a radom hand beating the hands that you specified that you would call with?

08-01-2005, 11:12 PM
How did you calculate the 27% of a radom hand beating the hands that you specified that you would call with?

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www.pokerstove.com (http://www.pokerstove.com)

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08-01-2005, 11:15 PM
What page does Sklansky say this? I assume that TP4AP is Tournament Poker for Advanced Players, yes?

By the way, thanks to all of you for responding.


08-01-2005, 11:29 PM
This program sounds pretty awesome! And about the staying awake at night thing, it's kind of comforting to know that you're not alone!! Thanks.


08-02-2005, 10:03 AM
That strategy will win 60% of the time. That is, you play 62/1,362 of your starting hands; and win 73% of the time when you play. I assumed a constant $10 ante, rather than blinds. It doesn't matter for the betting, and the blinds mean the loss from folding alternates between two vlaues, which makes the computation more complex.

Obviously you could do better by loosening up when you are behind (if you have your last ante in the pot, for example, you have to call on anything) and tightening up when you are ahead (if you have 199 antes, you can afford to wait for better cards).

My guess is you could do better playing a few more hands.

08-02-2005, 11:44 AM
I think if we were playing a pusher bot we could come up with a decent system of what hands to play given how many BB we had at any time. Perhaps something like...

200BB - The freezeout is over, go buy a Slurpee
125BB - Plus TT,AQs,AJs,KQs,TT
100BB - Plus 99,QJs,KJs,AQo
80BB - Plus 88,KTs,AJo
50BB - Plus 77,66, any broadway combination
25BB - Rebuy
10BB - Stop getting cold decked
3BB - Renege on the bet