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View Full Version : My brain is fried....and apparently empty too

EMcWilliams
07-31-2005, 01:33 PM
This is my first post on this forum, and I am going to pull the annoying newbie post, so sorry in advance...and to those who help, thanks in advance.

For some reason, in the past 2 weeks, I seem to have forgotten a lot of the odds concepts in gambling and poker in general. Basically, I need help re-learning the fundamentals.

1. Just as a reminder, for pot odds, If my chances of hitting a winning hand are less than the odds the pot is offering, I am getting the worst of it, and should fold (notw: this is ignoring implied odds). So if I am a 5-1 dog, and the pot is offering 3-1, I should take the express train to the muck pile...and vice versa. Just clarify that for me, I cannot find any books right now (in the process of moving) so I need an answer please.

2. I still have trouble understanding the concept of reverse implied odds. I find the explanation in TOP is confusing...does anyone have a more simplistic explanation.

3. This is more of the general probability and gambling questions. I need help calculating EV. The formula for doing it is escaping me. And then, I need help (examples and etc.) about what a +EV bet is. I only ask this because last night after a game fmy friend offered me a game that he drew any club, out of a fair deck, he wins, and if he doesnt, I win. There are no odds, just straight dollar for dollar. I know that I am a 3-4 favorite, but how does that translate into EV?

LesWormMurphy
07-31-2005, 01:53 PM
Pot size compared to the bet you must call is your pot odds. Depending on your outs, your pot odds vary. For example, a four-out draw (Gutshot straight draw) requires the pot to lay at 10.5-to-1 for a 1-bet call from you to be break-even in the long haul. So if your in a hand and the pot is at 11BB, and you have a gutshot straight draw, you can call one bet if your opponent bets because you'll be getting 13-to-1. If the pot was only 7BB however, you should fold. To see a chart of the odds based on outs, read Small Stakes Hold 'Em.

2. That is the only thing I've yet to add to my game. In a few days though, I'll implement that too.

3. Whenever you have +EV (positive), you should take advantage of it because you essentially make money every time you bet. So let's take your example, with the club draw-- you win 3/4 times, and you lose 1/4 times-- so if you play this out long enough, you are actually WINNING EVERY SINGLE TIME.

+EV is something that needs to be looked out in a long-run format. If you got nothing but hands that had overwhelming +EV every single time, your really winning money every time you play because your opponents would win on occasion, but you would win most of the time-- just like the game with your friend... he's basically losing money every time he plays that game.

uuDevil
08-01-2005, 03:44 AM
[ QUOTE ]
1. Just as a reminder, for pot odds, If my chances of hitting a winning hand are less than the odds the pot is offering, I am getting the worst of it, and should fold (notw: this is ignoring implied odds). So if I am a 5-1 dog, and the pot is offering 3-1, I should take the express train to the muck pile...and vice versa.

Just clarify that for me, I cannot find any books right now (in the process of moving) so I need an answer please.

[/ QUOTE ]

You seem to be clear enough on that.

[ QUOTE ]
2. I still have trouble understanding the concept of reverse implied odds. I find the explanation in TOP is confusing...does anyone have a more simplistic explanation.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll try. Implied odds include extra bets you expect to WIN if you draw out on your opponent. Reverse implied odds include extra bets you expect to LOSE if your opponent has a better hand than you do or draws out on you.

[ QUOTE ]
3. This is more of the general probability and gambling questions. I need help calculating EV. The formula for doing it is escaping me. And then, I need help (examples and etc.) about what a +EV bet is. I only ask this because last night after a game fmy friend offered me a game that he drew any club, out of a fair deck, he wins, and if he doesnt, I win. There are no odds, just straight dollar for dollar. I know that I am a 3-4 favorite, but how does that translate into EV?

[/ QUOTE ]

For each possible outcome, multiply the probability of that outcome by the value of the outcome, then add these terms. In your example, there are 2 possible outcomes:

Outcome 1: your friend draws a club. The probability of this outcome is 1/4. The value of this outcome is -\$1.

Outcome 2: your friend draws some other suit. The probability of this outcome is 3/4. The value of this outcome to you is +\$1.

So EV= (1/4)(-1)+(3/4)(1)=1/2. You will win \$.5 per bet, on average.

Another way of looking at it: you are a 3-1 favorite (not sure why you say 3-4), so on average, 3 times you win \$1, and 1 time you lose \$1. This means you win 3(\$1)+1(-\$1)=\$2 every 4 bets, or \$.5 per bet, as before.

Try this webpage for further explanation and examples:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value