View Full Version : risking healthy stack on a three-way with hooks...

07-23-2005, 06:55 PM
$25+2 turbo

open-pusher had been passive with chips in play...no reason to think he didn't have AQ+,99+ here. shortie jumping in made this QUITE tempting. what do you think? risk a nice stack here?

PokerStars Game #2170577954: Tournament #10418207, Hold'em No Limit - Level V (75/150) - 2005/07/23 - 18:46:41 (ET)
Table '10418207 1' Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: plumcreekhp (715 in chips)
Seat 2: bluefeet (2230 in chips)
Seat 4: yeau2 (1520 in chips)
Seat 5: rosebud10 (5080 in chips)
Seat 7: erepsin (1120 in chips)
Seat 8: CoDbUa07 (1550 in chips)
Seat 9: fedex32 (1285 in chips)
bluefeet: posts small blind 75
yeau2: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to bluefeet [Js Jd]
rosebud10: folds
erepsin: folds
CoDbUa07: folds
fedex32: raises 1135 to 1285 and is all-in
plumcreekhp: calls 715 and is all-in
bluefeet: folds

07-23-2005, 07:10 PM
The way I see it, with the criteria you gave, there are 2 hands you have an advantage on (99,TT), 2 hands you coinflip on (AQ, AK), and 3 hands that have you screwed (QQ, KK, AA). Remember that AQ and AK are dealt more often than any pocket pair.

Based on that, it seems about even. I don't think you need to worry about the small stack's cards, because he could push with any pair and any good Ace. However, if he has an Ace, he and the original raiser could be holding each other's outs, making it more likely that you win.

Ex. 1
You: JJ
Orig. Raiser: AK
Small Stack: AT

Against a situation like this, you are over 50% to win against 2 players.

Ex. 2
You: JJ
Orig. Raiser: AK
Small Stack: 66

Here you are 46% to win against 2 players.

I see these situations as being reasonably likely, which in my opinion leans me towards a call here.

If he has a higher PP, you are in trouble, but I find that to be less likely.

But it is a pretty close decision, I may not be right here.

07-23-2005, 07:13 PM
thanks for the reply. well thought out. i was basically digging in my pocket for a coin to flip, but ultimately decided to let it go. manly to keep my stack intact for the coming bubble (on a largely passive table).

07-23-2005, 10:02 PM
Kentock: nice well-thought out reasoning. Yes, this is probably slightly positive chip-wise, but you'd like to preserve your stack to push passive players on the bubble..