View Full Version : Crazy bubble play?

07-20-2005, 04:41 AM
Euro $33 sng

Is play reckless or just plain bad. I ran into a monster behind me but i wanted to know if in general the play is a good one.

Button had been raising the blinds alot and i figured if i pushed here, he would fold and i would gain some extra chips. I also hoped it would make him stop stealing my blind as often.

Also i figured maybe i should have folded but folding a,j feels way to tight here. Also if i raised less i folded he would either reraise all in or just call me and i did not want to be in a situaiton like that.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (4 handed)

Hero (t1785)
BB (t2160)
UTG (t1730)
Button (t2325)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t300</font>, Hero raises all-In t1735, BB calls t1685, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Final Pot: t2135

07-20-2005, 06:08 AM
Without reads, I think it's a good push. But reads are nice here. Villains that don't raise a lot normally have something very good if they decide to raise 3x BB.

07-20-2005, 06:26 AM
I think this is an easy push if button has been raising a lot. You really can't expect BB to have a hand he'll call all in with when you reraised. BB's range should be really tight.

Outcomes (Estimate):

1. 70% Both Fold
You profit 400, stack is 2185.

2. 10% Dominated
7.5% You lose.
2.5% You got lucky, large chip lead.

3. 20% Opponent calls w/ worse hand
13.5% You get large chip lead
6.5% Opponent gets lucky, you lose.

My guess is 14% of the time, you lose. 16% of the time you double up. Take this advice as an estimation - no warranty attached.