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View Full Version : With aces preflop in hold'em: do you ever NOT want a call?

Daliman
02-23-2003, 12:28 AM
I know this sounds stupid, so let me flesh this query out a bit so you can REALLY think i'm dumb. I was in a NL tourney today where a player had AA vs. JJ(both around 2K T pre-hand), JJ had raised to about 500 chips, and AA went all in. Now at this time, there is about 800T in the pot, and i said it was a bit testy going postflop(more for the sinking feeling of getting AA snapped off than real concern), and another player said "well, he WANTS him to call if he has AA, right?", to which I said of course, but it got me thinking. In this situation(CAUTION: rudimentary math ahead) AA is about 8-1 over JJ preflop. So, working that out both ways, figuring 2K T to start for both players over 90 hands:
JJ fold= AA having 2800T post-hand, with no variance whatsoever
JJ call= 4000T 80 times=320,000 and ZERO T 10 times= average of 3556T with an acceptable amount of variance.
Now, this being said, and all things being equal(skill of players, etc) is there an instance where you'd prefer not to be called? I'm sure I could figure it out a little bit, but i'm sick, and there are people out there who are much better at this than I. I also haven't accounted for the fact that many hands are better than 8-1 against AA(down to about 3-1 for 78s), but again, i'm sick, and this is making my brain hurt already. I'm going on record in my addled and uninformed state that there ARE instance where you would prefer a fold to a call(headsup only), not that you'd be unhappy either way. I'm thinking the cutoff is right about at 2/3 your stack, which I could figure out, but again, sick.

Punker
03-05-2003, 10:29 AM
Obviously there are a lot of potential situations where you'd rather not be called if you have AA:

1) Someone else also has AA!

2) If the reward for winning the hand in question is enough in excess of the added benefit of winning the hand; eg, lets say you are on Paradise playing .5/1 heads up and suddenly it is hand 100,000,000 and the winner of the hand gets \$100,000. Yeah, I'd rather he just fold preflop here. Exactly where the cutoff for wanting him to call and wanting him to fold is a matter of personal preference.

mobes
03-05-2003, 02:52 PM
i always want a call. Even with the 78s that you mentioned, it is still 3-1. I'll bet my stack on a 3-1 line anyday.

felson
03-05-2003, 04:21 PM
A side point:

AA is about 8-1 over JJ preflop.

Aces are only a 4-1 favorite over Jacks. You're probably thinking that the Jacks are 8-1 to flop a set, but they can make a set on the later streets as well.

pokenum -h as ac - jd jh
Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ac 1375176 80.31 331554 19.36 5574 0.33 0.805
Jd Jh 331554 19.36 1375176 80.31 5574 0.33 0.195