View Full Version : The more I look at this hand, the less I like it.

07-15-2005, 04:26 AM
I had only played one hand before this, which involved me somehow not losing my whole stack with a set of Tens to a set of Aces (while playing the hand badly, I might add).

The raiser and first caller are pretty solid. The 2nd caller is unknown.

***** Hand History for Game 2366697803 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $1000 Buy-in + $65 Entry Fee Trny:13948974 Level:1 Blinds(10/15) - Friday, July 15, 04:02:33 EDT 2005
Table Step 5 #983423 (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 1: howie_ ( $1800 )
Seat 2: baller6969 ( $1400 )
Seat 3: skinsftbl ( $475 )
Seat 4: NUTZREALBIG ( $1975 )
Seat 5: tedkgb11 ( $660 )
Seat 6: Warma ( $1160 )
Seat 7: genoa_st ( $1060 )
Seat 9: Yahtzee0 ( $540 )
Seat 10: Newmania ( $930 )
Trny:13948974 Level:1
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to skinsftbl [ Ah 7h ]
tedkgb11 folds.
Warma folds.
genoa_st folds.
Yahtzee0 raises [45].
Newmania calls [45].
howie_ calls [45].
baller6969 folds.
skinsftbl is all-In [460]

DJ Sensei
07-15-2005, 04:29 AM
I dont much like it either. If you lost a showdown within the last few hands, it looks a lot like tilt and will get called down by AK down to maybe AJ. Not to mention the pot isnt all that big, and certainly not worth risking your whole stack over while still in level 1. (Even at level 2, you arent unreasonably shortstacked yet)

07-15-2005, 05:13 AM
I wouldn't do it.

07-15-2005, 05:15 AM

I wouldn't do it.

[/ QUOTE ]

What factors would have to change? What hand would you do this with? Or what stack size, or raise size? or # of callers?

Actually, there are like 4 billion answers to those questions, so, just one that's somewhat similar to the hand I played, but that you would push on.

07-15-2005, 01:48 PM
I wouldn't push with anything here. You have well over 10xBB and DJsensei is right about your push being seen as going on tilt. You still have time to build your stack back up with solid play.

07-15-2005, 02:09 PM
Well a couple of thoughts -

1. i have no business commenting on 1000+65 sngs

2. the button open raises for 3 x bb, i don't know when the stealing starts at this level, but with a 10/15 blinds is he really just looking to pick up the blinds or is he looking for action from the blinds?

3. i would think that here with the small blind call and the overcall by the big blind they are looking to play their hands as well and probably have some strength

4. while the implied odds might justify a call (because you close the betting) i don't think its a good spot to push for the reasons mentioned by the other posters.

07-15-2005, 07:35 PM
There's a small raise from a solid player in LP. This could actually be a pretty wide range of hands. These games can get fairly aggressive.

There are then two callers who know that this raise could be many hands, including a lot of speculative hands (low pps/98s/etc.) and know that there aren't many players left to act behind them who might raise them out of the pot.

This would probably dissuade them from cold calling QQ-AA, and maybe AK. This makes these hands unlikely.

I don't think that many of these players would think I'm tilting here. I could be wrong, but besides losing a hand, they have no reason to believe so. I didn't type anything in the chat, and I got away fairly cheaply considering the circumstances.

Anyways, the next thing working for me is the fact that there were the callers. The initial raiser will have to fold hands like AJ, AT, 88, (maybe AQ and 99) etc, because of the fear of committing his stack with cold callers to act behind him. If he calls 460 with AJs, and gets reraised all in by the next player, that's a really tough spot he's put himself in.

The same logic applies to the first caller, although slightly less so.

The second caller was the least likely, IMO, to have AK or QQ+ because he would be inclined to raise with those hands given the situation. He is able to call with a few more hands than the others, but since his call was on the button and with two players in the pot, he is very likely to have speculative hands himself. You don't need as big a hand when you are on the button, and drawing hands are great when last to act.

Math time:

If I fold preflop, which I believe is the alternative (I don't want to call with what's really a drawing hand out of position) I will have 460 chips. ICM says thats about and EV of .05.

If I push, and they fold, I will have 620. EV of .066.

If I push and am called, let's say I'm 30% to win (I'm 30% v AK and 32% v KK)

70% of the time, I'm out. EV = 0
30% of the time, I have ~1030. EV = ~ .106

EV when called = .0318

so (x).032 + (1-x).066 = EV of push

where (x) = probability I'm called

EV fold = .05

Setting them equal (gimme a break if I screw up, it's been a while since a math class)

.05 = (x).032 + (1-x).066

Solving for x, we get .47.

So, this is a break even play if I'm called 47% of the time. I don't wanna go through putting them on hands and then calculating the hands I expect to be called by, but I believe this makes this a +EV push as I don't expect to be called half the time.