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View Full Version : Bad logic costs another Jeopardy contestant the win

captZEEbo1
06-23-2005, 05:50 PM
It's REALLY funny to me when people misbid at the end. Let's say their scores are:
Contestant 1: 16800
Contestant 2: 16300
Contestant 3: 12000

Contestant 3 should NEVER bid it all, that accomplishes nothing. His best bet is to bet 5000, in case one of the first two opponents have no confidence in the category and just bet 0. But betting 0 is good too. When contestant 3 bets it all, a few scenarios can happen:
scenario 1: contestant 1 and/or contestant 2 gets it right, so what, they lose anyways
scenario 2: contestant 1 and contestant 2 get it wrong, but you get it right; you win, but you'd also win had you bet 0.
scenario 3: you risk it all, and contestant 1 or 2 doesn't, and everyone gets it wrong, you lose.

It's just funny to me that people that make it past all the tryouts to get on jeopardy, but then don't bother learning optimal end game strategy, and therefore throw away tens of thousands of dollars, and the chance to win more the next day.

ClaytonN
06-23-2005, 05:52 PM
The title is indicative of a recent endbid f*ck-up, and your post explains a hypothetical scenario?

BEGONE!

Yeti
06-23-2005, 05:52 PM
You seem to ignore

scenario 4 : contestant 1 and/or contestant 2 bet ~5k and get it right, you win because you bet 12k.

ClaytonN
06-23-2005, 05:55 PM
If you're contestant 1 or 2, you are not bidding ~\$5000, it's just as plain and simple as that. I'll let others explain

Blarg
06-23-2005, 06:04 PM
Contestant 1 doesn't like the category and bets nothing, ending with the same 16,800 he started with.

If contestant 3 bets nothing, automatic loss.
If he bets 4,801, and answers incorrectly, he has still lost.
If he bets 4,801, and answers correctly, he may have just won.

What contestant 2 does is a wildcard in these scenarios.

Patrick del Poker Grande
06-23-2005, 06:09 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Contestant 1 doesn't like the category and bets nothing, ending with the same 16,800 he started with.

If contestant 3 bets nothing, automatic loss.
If he bets 4,801, and answers incorrectly, he has still lost.
If he bets 4,801, and answers correctly, he may have just won.

What contestant 2 does is a wildcard in these scenarios.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'd bet something like \$5002 If I were Contestant #3. \$5000 is a nice round number someone in #2's position might guess that I'd wager and he'd try to be slick and bet enough to just beat me should I bet \$5000. Plus, I'm covered if #2 is foolish enough to bet just enough to beat a zero bet by #1.

edit: Who cares? This [censored] never happens. #2 is going to bet enough to beat #3 should #3 bet it all and get it right.

Homer
06-23-2005, 06:10 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Contestant 1: 16800
Contestant 2: 16300
Contestant 3: 12000

[/ QUOTE ]

What would you bet if you were Contestant 2, assuming you read 1 &amp; 3 to be typical players?

I'd go with 7700, but maybe there is a better play.

Patrick del Poker Grande
06-23-2005, 06:11 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Contestant 1: 16800
Contestant 2: 16300
Contestant 3: 12000

[/ QUOTE ]

What would you bet if you were Contestant 2, assuming you read 1 &amp; 3 to be typical players?

I'd go with 7700, but maybe there is a better play.

[/ QUOTE ]
There is. 7701.

ClaytonN
06-23-2005, 06:12 PM
Clearly you are wrong. The answer is \$7702.

Patrick del Poker Grande
06-23-2005, 06:13 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Clearly you are wrong. The answer is \$7702.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm not wrong. \$7701 isn't necessarily the best play, but it's certainly better than \$7700. I think I'd go with something from \$7703 to about \$7750.

Homer
06-23-2005, 06:15 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Contestant 1: 16800
Contestant 2: 16300
Contestant 3: 12000

[/ QUOTE ]

What would you bet if you were Contestant 2, assuming you read 1 &amp; 3 to be typical players?

I'd go with 7700, but maybe there is a better play.

[/ QUOTE ]
There is. 7701.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought of that, but I'd rather tie the guy in third place because I get the same amount of money (well, one dollar less) and get to go up against him tomorrow. Since he scored lower than me today, he is likely a worse player and I want to be up against him again tomrrow.

Homer
06-23-2005, 06:16 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Clearly you are wrong. The answer is \$7702.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm not wrong. \$7701 isn't necessarily the best play, but it's certainly better than \$7700. I think I'd go with something from \$7703 to about \$7750.

[/ QUOTE ]

I strongly disagree, unless I am mistaken about the rules of Jeopardy, which at this point seems fairly likely. I thought both players would get the full amount, but maybe they both get a fixed amount when they tie?

Patrick del Poker Grande
06-23-2005, 06:16 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Contestant 1: 16800
Contestant 2: 16300
Contestant 3: 12000

[/ QUOTE ]

What would you bet if you were Contestant 2, assuming you read 1 &amp; 3 to be typical players?

I'd go with 7700, but maybe there is a better play.

[/ QUOTE ]
There is. 7701.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought of that, but I'd rather tie the guy in third place because I get the same amount of money (well, one dollar less) and get to go up against him tomorrow. Since he scored lower than me today, he is likely a worse player and I want to be up against him again tomrrow.

[/ QUOTE ]
That's not bad. I'm guilty of not knowing the rules on ties in Jeopardy!

A_C_Slater
06-23-2005, 06:17 PM
Are you forgetting that if he bets it all, because he's confident that he knows everything regarding the category, that he then he can beat contestant 1 and 2 AND maximize his profit? How does betting everything accomplish nothing?

You are a Jeopardy nit.

ClaytonN
06-23-2005, 06:19 PM
I still haven't been contacted regarding the college tournament.

If I get stiffed 3 years in a row, I am going to be very pissed.

Patrick del Poker Grande
06-23-2005, 06:20 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Are you forgetting that if he bets it all, because he's confident that he knows everything regarding the category, that he then he can beat contestant 1 and 2 AND maximize his profit? How does betting everything accomplish nothing?

You are a Jeopardy nit.

[/ QUOTE ]
It's giving up immediate expectation in favor of cashing in on a larger expecation in the future.

A_C_Slater
06-23-2005, 06:35 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Are you forgetting that if he bets it all, because he's confident that he knows everything regarding the category, that he then he can beat contestant 1 and 2 AND maximize his profit? How does betting everything accomplish nothing?

You are a Jeopardy nit.

[/ QUOTE ]
It's giving up immediate expectation in favor of cashing in on a larger expecation in the future.

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand that.

But he said betting everything when in 3rd place accomplishes nothing. And he is wrong!

captZEEbo1
06-23-2005, 06:40 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Are you forgetting that if he bets it all, because he's confident that he knows everything regarding the category, that he then he can beat contestant 1 and 2 AND maximize his profit? How does betting everything accomplish nothing?

You are a Jeopardy nit.

[/ QUOTE ]
It's giving up immediate expectation in favor of cashing in on a larger expecation in the future.

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand that.

But he said betting everything when in 3rd place accomplishes nothing. And he is wrong!

[/ QUOTE ]

You should play for the win, not the highest point total. When will you be 100% confident that you can answer the category correctly?

And to someone else that said this was a hypothetical situation, I didn't have the EXACT numbers memorized from 2 days ago, but they are relatively close to what I said. But it doesn't matter the exact numbers, this scenario happens all the time.

Alobar
06-23-2005, 07:16 PM
[ QUOTE ]
But it doesn't matter the exact numbers, this scenario happens all the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah it does. I can honestly say, that while I cant even come anywhere near knowing as much as the contestents, I ruintienly pimp them in the final question betting. Some of these people are completely stupid when it comes to this aspect. It boggles my mind as well.

Patrick del Poker Grande
06-23-2005, 07:18 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
But it doesn't matter the exact numbers, this scenario happens all the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah it does. I can honestly say, that while I cant even come anywhere near knowing as much as the contestents, I ruintienly pimp them in the final question betting. Some of these people are completely stupid when it comes to this aspect. It boggles my mind as well.

[/ QUOTE ]
We're all forgetting that these guys usually are all english major book worm type geeks and not math nerds. I once watched a Jeopardy! where the answer was something to do with how many miles a guy ran if he ran around a quarter-mile track 16 times. Exact numbers I don't remember, but I [censored] you not, this was the answer/question and it wasn't any more difficult. Two of them got the question wrong and the third one wouldn't ring in.

KJS
06-23-2005, 09:04 PM
I have been making a similar point for years: that the 3rd place player should very often bet 0, since their only chance of winning is that both the other players get the ? wrong. Don't watch it too often, but I've seen a few cases where the 1st and 2nd are close, so they bet big thinking the other person will too, but then the 3rd place player bets big too, I assume out of some weird logic that says "I have to double up to win" or something. Then everyone gets it wrong and the winner is whoever has some change left over. All 3rd had to do was bet zero and hope the others bombed to win but couldn't figure that out.

KJS

JustSomeJackass
06-23-2005, 11:47 PM
The funnier screw-ups involve the 2nd place player and happen when the dollar amounts entering Final Jeopardy are something like:

Player 1: 14000
Player 2: 12000
Player 3: 4000

Player 3 should be out. History has shown that Player 1 will bid 10,001 or more. Player 2 has no reason to bet more than 3999 but they often will go for the Cliff Claven All or nothing...allowing the 3rd place player to sneak out the win when everybody gets the question wrong. Dumbasses.

There are other screw-ups that players routinely make...like when Player 1 has 20,000 and his closest competitor has between 8000 and 9900. The last clue is worth 2000 and the second place player does not buzz in to try to get it right. I don't care what the category is...even though I know nothing about Russian literature or Foods that start with "Q" you have to at least take a shot.

I guess that these types of mistakes aren't as bad or embarrassing though as the Wheel of Fortune contestant several years ago that had a ton of money and a board that read:

WHO YOU GONNA __LL, GHOSTBUSTERS

and "solved" the puzzle: WHO YOU GONNA KILL, GHOSTBUSTERS

And not near as funny as the "Family Feud" bonus round players that gave great answers to the following questions:

Name a dangerous race? (no, not a motorcycle race, or a triathlon, or even the Indy 500)...... their answer: "the Arabs" /images/graemlins/shocked.gif

Name a number that you have to memorize? (hmmm, phone numbers, social security number...no...) their brilliant response: "7" /images/graemlins/confused.gif

And these players were deemed one of the 2 smartest in their respective families to compete in the bonus round.

Frequitude
06-24-2005, 05:10 AM
Or the Family Feud when the question was "fruits that begin with the letter A". This guy acknowledged that he was going against his family's choices and screamed "Araaaaaannnnnnge".

A_C_Slater
06-24-2005, 10:25 AM
When will you be 100% confident that you can answer the final category correctly?

If the final category is poker theory and you're David Sklansky?

schwza
06-24-2005, 10:42 AM
[ QUOTE ]
Name a dangerous race? (no, not a motorcycle race, or a triathlon, or even the Indy 500)...... their answer: "the Arabs"

Name a number that you have to memorize? (hmmm, phone numbers, social security number...no...) their brilliant response: "7"

[/ QUOTE ]

these are great. the first one had to be a setup by the producers. and i bet if you actually polled americans, "the arabs" would be tops on the list.

my economist father told me there have been articles written in serious economics journals about the game theory of final jeopardy.

freekobe
06-24-2005, 11:22 AM
[ QUOTE ]
I guess that these types of mistakes aren't as bad or embarrassing though as the Wheel of Fortune contestant several years ago that had a ton of money and a board that read:

WHO YOU GONNA __LL, GHOSTBUSTERS

and "solved" the puzzle: WHO YOU GONNA KILL, GHOSTBUSTERS

[/ QUOTE ]

I definitely thought your "Arab" story was funny, but I call BS on the one above.

The "A" was already picked. It would've said WHO YOU GONNA _ALL, GHOSTBUSTERS

Alobar
06-24-2005, 11:29 AM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I guess that these types of mistakes aren't as bad or embarrassing though as the Wheel of Fortune contestant several years ago that had a ton of money and a board that read:

WHO YOU GONNA __LL, GHOSTBUSTERS

and "solved" the puzzle: WHO YOU GONNA KILL, GHOSTBUSTERS

[/ QUOTE ]

I definitely thought your "Arab" story was funny, but I call BS on the one above.

The "A" was already picked. It would've said WHO YOU GONNA _ALL, GHOSTBUSTERS

[/ QUOTE ]

I have ZERO doubt its true, I mean, seriously, I can completely see that happening. Maybe the OP just typed it wrong and it was supposed to be "WHO YOU GONN_ __LL, GHOSTBUSTERS"

freekobe
06-24-2005, 11:32 AM
You're probably right. I'm just being annoying.

Analyst
06-24-2005, 01:12 PM
This was a terrible play by #3. What amazed me even more was that none of them got this one right - though admittedly I might be just a touch biased since I went to Michigan. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

captZEEbo1
06-24-2005, 01:26 PM
[ QUOTE ]
my economist father told me there have been articles written in serious economics journals about the game theory of final jeopardy.

[/ QUOTE ]
I've seen optimal strategy and EV of different choices for The Price is Right in a serious math journal. For instance, assuming everyone is using optimal strategy, how much of an advantage does the 3rd person have over the 1st person or 2nd person at the wheel thing (2 spins to get \$1 or less).

[ QUOTE ]
This was a terrible play by #3. What amazed me even more was that none of them got this one right - though admittedly I might be just a touch biased since I went to Michigan.

[/ QUOTE ]
I went to college in Michigan and didn't know the answer either =P

Patrick del Poker Grande
06-24-2005, 01:38 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
my economist father told me there have been articles written in serious economics journals about the game theory of final jeopardy.

[/ QUOTE ]
I've seen optimal strategy and EV of different choices for The Price is Right in a serious math journal. For instance, assuming everyone is using optimal strategy, how much of an advantage does the 3rd person have over the 1st person or 2nd person at the wheel thing (2 spins to get \$1 or less).

[ QUOTE ]
This was a terrible play by #3. What amazed me even more was that none of them got this one right - though admittedly I might be just a touch biased since I went to Michigan.

[/ QUOTE ]
I went to college in Michigan and didn't know the answer either =P

[/ QUOTE ]
What was the answer/question? I think I've got the strategy down. I also went to UM (and MTU).

youtalkfunny
06-25-2005, 03:28 AM
When I saw the topic "College Towns", before they even went to commercial, my brain started listing towns they may ask about:

Boston
Cambridge
Palo Alto
Oxford, MS (it came up on Final Jeopardy before)
Ann Arbor
and a few more. In that order.

I found the final question to be a breeze. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

The answer is: Town whose name comes from the first names of the founders' wives (they had the same first name), and the many trees they found there.