View Full Version : Calculating Odds on Draws

05-19-2005, 07:14 AM
People often calculate their pot odds based on # of Outs to draw to a straight or flush, or imagine themself in a 'coinflip' situation with pocket pair vs. two broadway cards.

It seems most odds calculations though assume that all of your outs are still in the deck, not discarded by other players in the tourney. Is there a formula for calculating the probable number of 'true' outs. For example if you have a four-flush on the flop against one opponent, with six other players having mucked pre-flop, would you assume having 9 outs to the flush, or would it average out to more like 6-7 true outs??

This is something I was thinking about when using the cardplayer odds calculator, and when I see the %'s given on TV poker. They will show pocket pair vs. overcards as 55-45, but isn't that only if none of the overcards were mucked?

05-19-2005, 07:35 AM
but isn't that only if none of the overcards were mucked?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes it is.

05-19-2005, 08:58 AM
You don't know any of the mucked cards. If there were 6 non-flush cards folded that helps you immensely so your odds would be higher than the expected ~35%. If there were 6 flush cards folded that hurts you.

It all evens out.

05-19-2005, 09:27 AM
Your odds are calculated based on the cards that you know. It's make just as much sense to factor in the ten cards on the bottom of the deck as it does to factor in the ten cards that were in other people's hands.