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Diggslick
05-11-2005, 01:55 PM
What percentage of the time will suited connectors flop either ,Two pair(or boat or quads) or Four to a flush(flush) or OESD(or the straight)? Thanks

LetYouDown
05-11-2005, 02:48 PM
Don't trust this post. I'm curious if anyone wants to tackle this problem and correct my errors (I'm sure there are some).

Assuming you have Js-10s.

There are 117600 flop possibilities.

Exactly Quads: 2 Combinations
Exactly Boat: 18 combinations
Exactly Trips: 264 combinations
Exactly Two Pair: 396 combinations
Four Flush (incl. OESFD): 2035 Combinations
Flush (incl. SF): 165 Combinations
OESD: 320 Combinations
Straight: 192 Combinations

chapstick
05-11-2005, 03:53 PM
[ QUOTE ]

Assuming you have Js-10s.
There are 117600 flop possibilities.


[/ QUOTE ]
I believe there are 19600 flop possibilities.
C(50,3) = 19600. You are assuming two flops
with different order are distinct.

[ QUOTE ]

Exactly Quads: 2 Combinations
Exactly Boat: 18 combinations
Exactly Trips: 264 combinations
Exactly Two Pair: 396 combinations


[/ QUOTE ]
I get 66 exactly-trips combos, and 99 exactly-two-pair combos.

The rest I have not looked yet.

[ QUOTE ]

Four Flush (incl. OESFD): 2035 Combinations
Flush (incl. SF): 165 Combinations
OESD: 320 Combinations
Straight: 192 Combinations

[/ QUOTE ]

LetYouDown
05-11-2005, 04:44 PM
Yeah, the order was the issue...I forgot to divide by 3!. First time in a while I've had that blunder. Definitely an oversight /images/graemlins/wink.gif.

binions
05-11-2005, 04:46 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Don't trust this post. I'm curious if anyone wants to tackle this problem and correct my errors (I'm sure there are some).

Assuming you have Js-10s.

There are 117600 flop possibilities.

Exactly Quads: 2 Combinations
Exactly Boat: 18 combinations
Exactly Trips: 264 combinations
Exactly Two Pair: 396 combinations
Four Flush (incl. OESFD): 2035 Combinations
Flush (incl. SF): 165 Combinations
OESD: 320 Combinations
Straight: 192 Combinations

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you want to flop a straight, 2 pair or straight draw when the board is 3 flush against you? Do you want to flop a straight draw on a paired board?

In other words, some of these "good" flops are dangerous.

LetYouDown
05-11-2005, 04:51 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I get 66 exactly-trips combos

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm wondering how you got there. Did you consider the fact that there's 3 ways for the first two cards to be J-J? Maybe I'm overlooking something. Wouldn't surprise me.

Cobra
05-11-2005, 05:44 PM
I analyzed this for a similar hand.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Board=probability&Number=218 9774&Forum=,All_Forums,&Words=&Searchpage=0&Limit= 25&Main=2188301&Search=true&where=&Name=20638&date range=&newerval=&newertype=&olderval=&oldertype=&b odyprev=#Post2189774

Cobra

LetYouDown
05-11-2005, 07:01 PM
So relatively close...I excluded double belly busters, but I think for the most part we're in agreement.

Mr Mojo Risin
05-11-2005, 11:10 PM
Cobra, acording to your math, there is a 48.49 chance of hitting something on the flop with these cards. Did i do my math right?

chapstick
05-12-2005, 01:55 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I get 66 exactly-trips combos

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm wondering how you got there. Did you consider the fact that there's 3 ways for the first two cards to be J-J? Maybe I'm overlooking something. Wouldn't surprise me.

[/ QUOTE ]

No. My mistake. I multiplied by 11, for the remaining
non-trip-contributing card, and forgot about its suit.
I should have multiplied by 44. (Note 66x4 = 264).
Apologies.

LetYouDown
05-12-2005, 02:02 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Cobra, acording to your math, there is a 48.49 chance of hitting something on the flop with these cards. Did i do my math right?

[/ QUOTE ]I haven't even looked, but my guess is that you're just adding the odds of each hand up? That would be problematic, as when you have a full house, you also have three of a kind, and you also have a pair and you also have two pair. When you have have a straight flush, you have a straight and a flush, etc. Did you just add them or did you come up with this through some derivation?

Mr Mojo Risin
05-13-2005, 12:36 AM
Just added them up. If anyone actually paid attention in math class and knows how to answer that, I would be forever greatfull. Thank you. I might be right though, because it might not matter that when you ahve a full you also have trips. I don't know though. Does anyone else?

Mr Mojo Risin
05-14-2005, 04:55 PM
Does anyone know how to do this correctly? Or does anyone know if i did it correctly? Thanks.

Cobra
05-15-2005, 02:30 PM
I do not know how you came up with that figure maybe you can explain and I will see if there is any errors. At the end of my original post I show the chance of having a specific hand or greater. At the end it shows 4876 flops improve to the posters selection or better out of 19600 flops. This equates to 24.9%.

Cobra

Mr Mojo Risin
05-16-2005, 05:30 PM
To get my figure, the chance that if you hold a small suited conector that the flop will hit you somehow, i just added up the probablility of each separate thing that it could hit (open ended, flush, straght, full, bla bla bla). Is this too simple of a method?

Cobra
05-19-2005, 09:23 AM
To answer your question, yes this is too simple of an approach. The problem is you are counting many of the hands twice. For example if you count flushes and then add straights to it you have counted twice the hands that are a straight and a flush. However even with these double counts your approximation of a hit seems to be way to high, what do you define as a hit did you include any pair. If you did there are many double counts with a pair. You can get a pair with four to a flush, a pair with eight outs to a straight, etc.

Cobra

Delphin
05-19-2005, 03:03 PM
[ QUOTE ]
What percentage of the time will suited connectors flop either ,Two pair(or boat or quads) or Four to a flush(flush) or OESD(or the straight)? Thanks

[/ QUOTE ]

Kind of hard because of the overlap.

Two Pair: 396 flops
Trips: 264 flops
Quads: 2 flops
Boat: 18 flops
Straight: 144 flops (discounted flushes and flush draws)
Flush: 165 flops
OESD: 1296 flops (discounted flushes and flush draws)
FD: 2145 flops

Total: 4425 flops / 19600 flops
22.58% of flops or 3.43:1 against flopping a hand

How'd I do?

man
05-19-2005, 05:06 PM
I see this 264 number popping up a lot, and I'm not sure it's right. here's my calculation for 76s:

[(3choose2) the second and third 6's or 7's of the set]*[45 other cards in the deck that don't give you a full house]*[2 flops for the 6 and 7] = 3*45*2 = 270

Are you guys forgetting that there are 45 cards left that don't give a full house, not 44? (Am I somehow wrong about this?)

edit: I forgot to take out the fourth 6 or 7 for the four of a kind.. but I'm not deleting this in case someone makes the same mistake.