View Full Version : How often should you lose to set over set? (N/L)

05-06-2005, 02:58 PM
what are the odds of 2 players making a set in the same hand? what about flush over flush on the flop? sorry, search was exhausting.


05-06-2005, 03:42 PM
what are the odds of 2 players making a set in the same hand? what about flush over flush on the flop? sorry, search was exhausting.


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Well, If you have Aces then the odds are 1:infinity to lose to a higher set. Same as if you you have Axs and flop a flush to lose to a higher flush. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Seriously, it depends on what cards you have and how many opponents you have.

A better question what are the chances that I will flop a set with KK and be behind a AA who also flopped a set with 1 opponent? This is the easiest case:

x = [C(4,2)/C(50,2)] * [( 2 * 2 * 46 )/C(48,3)] = 0.0000052105948762483714

So really rarely... 1:192k against this happening. This seems a bit high.



05-06-2005, 04:38 PM
x = [C(4,2)/C(50,2)] * [( 2 * 2 * 46 )/C(48,3)] = 0.0000052105948762483714

Is the English translation of this calculation = "I have a pair. What are the odds that my opponent has a pair as well and we both flop sets?"

05-06-2005, 05:10 PM
Yes. sort of. This is specific to the case that you have KK and you are concerned about AA. I'll try to make it clearer.

You know what you have: KK...A pair.
You opponent can have any two cards

So the equations will be:

X = Eq(1) * Eq(2)

Eq(1): x = C(4,2)/C(50,2)

English: "This is the probability that that they have a pair of AA over the total hands that makes up the rest of the deck sans your KK"
(This is the probability that your one opponent holds AA preflop)

Eq2: x = (2 * 2 * 46)/C(48,2)

English: This is the number of three card flops that contain a K and an Ace over the total number of three card flops from the rest of the cards in the deck.
(this is assuming we have removed 2 Kings and 2 Aces)

So to get the total probablity of the equation you must multiply these two equations Eq(1) and Eq(2).

And this whole situation is only when you are playing HU. All these factors increase if you add more people and you have a pair less than KK.

Clearer? Mistakes?


P.S. I just realized that I didnt take into account the times that you flop KKA, but this will happen so rarely that it only removes one case in the second equation.

05-06-2005, 05:25 PM
I think the number is high, because you're losing with kings. You will lose to a higher set if you flop 2's than if you flop kings. Is there a way to calculate the odds of the worst case scenario? Hero flopping a set of 2's and Villian getting a higher set?


05-06-2005, 05:34 PM
ok. this is the situation. twice in my last 1K hands, i have made a set, only to have someone else make a bigger one. not AA vs. KK, though. once was 44 flopping a boat(J4J) pfr had QQ and hit Q on turn.

the other time, i make a set of 2's on flop, other guy (pfr) makes a set of 7's on flop.

i've lost with more sets, but just not to other sets during this time period.

so, is this normal? i've played lots of hands (for me) this month because i'm on vacation, but it seems this is happening too much...i'm just running bad. comments?

****i've played over 4K hands this month, but both of these happened just last night, and for the 4K hands, my 3 of a kinds have held up 66.67% of the time. i play n/l and p/l if that makes a difference, and slow played both sets against preflop raisors****


05-06-2005, 06:12 PM
I've probably had it happen 10-20 times in my database of 60,000 hands. It might be even less. You've just gotten a little unlucky.