View Full Version : Rolled-up in 7-Card Stud 3 times in a row

11-19-2002, 02:33 PM
Several years ago I was playing in a 7-Card Stud tournament at the Orleans Open and something unbelievable happened. I was rolled-up 3 times in concecutive hands (AAA, QQQ and then KKK). I lost all three hands and thereby also lost all my chips. These three hands were the first three hands of the tournament and I was walking out of the tournament area while some players were still not seated. Could not help but laugh at this bizarre happening.

I figure the odds of this happening was 50/50 - either it will happen or it won't /forums/images/icons/grin.gif Seriously, anyone know the odds of this event occuring?

11-19-2002, 02:49 PM
The probability against being rolled up is 1/425 or 424:1 against. Therefore the probability of being rolled up three times in a row should be (1/425)^3 = 1 / 76765625 so over 76 million to 1 against.

11-19-2002, 03:45 PM
# three-card starting combos = C(52,3) = 22100
# rolled-up combos = C(4,3)*13 = 52
P(rolled-up) = 1/425
P(rolled-up three times in a row) = (1/425)^3 = 1/76765625 = 1 out of 76.7 million

Out of every 100 players who play 8 hrs/day, 5 days/wk, 52 wks/yr, 40 yrs, at 40 hands/hr (in other words the lifetime of a professional), only 4.2 will have this happen to them {1 - (76765624/76765625)^3328000}. I think this is right. If not, someone please correct me.

-- Homer

11-19-2002, 04:25 PM
I would be very suspicious of the dealer, if i were you.

pressed peanut sweepings!

11-20-2002, 01:32 PM
The chances of that happenning are like winning the powerball. Then you even add "it was the first 3 hands, it was AAA, QQQ, KKK, and most of all, You lost all 3".

Get a life,
A non-believer