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View Full Version : Probability of getting the same pocket pair 4 times in a row?

Schwinn
05-02-2005, 03:26 PM
I played in a NL holdem sit&amp;go tourney yesturday and during the middle of the game, I was dealt 66 four times in a row. I am curious of what the probabilitiy is of this happening? 3 out of the 4 I hit the set "666". I think the poker devil is after me.

My next hand was 77. What would the probability be of getting any pocket pair dealt 5 hands in a row.

FishHooks
05-02-2005, 03:52 PM
well the odds of you getting a pocket pair is 13/220. Now after you get your first pocket pair getting that same pair again many times you multiplay 13/220 by 1/220.
Same pocket pair 4 times in a row: 1 / 180,196,923
Same pocket pair 5 times in a row: 1 / 39,643,323,076

pokerjunky
05-03-2005, 11:03 AM
[ QUOTE ]

Same pocket pair 4 times in a row: 1 / 180,196,923

[/ QUOTE ]

Damn, you need to go buy some lottery tickets.

LetYouDown
05-03-2005, 11:18 AM
Odds of any pair preflop = 13/220. So, to answer the other part of your question (any pair 5 times in a row), it's as simple as (13/220)^5 or about 1388023 to 1.

FishHooks
05-03-2005, 11:36 AM
read the thread title, he said the same pocket pair, then asked another question in the post, kinda confusing but I think he ment the same pocket pair, not any.

LetYouDown
05-03-2005, 11:50 AM
[ QUOTE ]
What would the probability be of getting any pocket pair dealt 5 hands in a row.

[/ QUOTE ]
I read the title and I read the original question. Perhaps this is semantics, but his second question was worded differently.

Schwinn
05-03-2005, 01:39 PM
180 million to one...nice. It kind of freaks me out that the pair was 66 and I ended up with a set three times. Can't stop thinking about it. Wondering if it is a sign from the devil to quit playing. hehe

Thanks for the replies. I did mean ANY pocket pairs...five hands in a row. I got 77 on the fifth hand.

Here is the hand history if interested.

Game #809445037 (Level V, Game #1) - 50/100 No Limit Texas Hold'em - 2005/04/29-07:05:59.0 (CST)
Table "Makira" (\$5 tournament) -- Seat 4 is the button
Seat 2: Kreks21 (1,287.00 in chips)
Seat 4: Lupicaz (1,502.00 in chips)
Seat 5: APJ72 (1,936.00 in chips)
Seat 6: UBring_It_On (2,586.00 in chips)
Seat 7: FlopThaNuts (330.00 in chips)
Seat 8: theCoinmaker (1,120.00 in chips)
Seat 10: KOBEx8x (1,239.00 in chips)
APJ72 : Post Small Blind (50)
UBring_It_On: Post Big Blind (100)
Dealing...
<font color="blue"> </font> FlopThaNuts: Raise (330)
theCoinmaker: Fold
KOBEx8x said, "gl"
KOBEx8x : Call (330)
Kreks21 : Fold
Lupicaz : Fold
APJ72 : Fold
FlopThaNuts said, "cya"
UBring_It_On: Call (230)
<font color="blue"> </font> UBring_It_On: Bet (900)
FlopThaNuts said, "or not"
KOBEx8x said, "this is hard to fold"
FlopThaNuts said, "come on aces"
KOBEx8x : Fold
UBring_It_On said, "you might out draw"
KOBEx8x said, "lol"
*** TURN *** : [ 7d 9d 6c ] [ 4c ]
*** RIVER *** : [ 7d 9d 6c 4c ] [ Tc ]
FlopThaNuts said, "lol"
*** SUMMARY ***
Pot: 1,040 | Board: [ 7d 9d 6c 4c Tc ]
Kreks21 didn't bet (folded)
Lupicaz didn't bet (folded)
APJ72 lost 50 (folded)
UBring_It_On bet 1,230, collected 1,940, net +710 (showed hand) [ 6d 6s ] (three of a kind, sixes)
FlopThaNuts lost 330 (showed hand) [ Kh Th ] (a pair of tens)
theCoinmaker didn't bet (folded)
KOBEx8x lost 330 (folded)

Game #809445566 (Level V, Game #2) - 50/100 No Limit Texas Hold'em - 2005/04/29-07:07:08.3 (CST)
Table "Makira" (\$5 tournament) -- Seat 5 is the button
Seat 2: Kreks21 (1,287.00 in chips)
Seat 4: Lupicaz (1,502.00 in chips)
Seat 5: APJ72 (1,886.00 in chips)
Seat 6: UBring_It_On (3,296.00 in chips)
Seat 8: theCoinmaker (1,120.00 in chips)
Seat 10: KOBEx8x (909.00 in chips)
UBring_It_On: Post Small Blind (50)
theCoinmaker: Post Big Blind (100)
<font color="blue"> </font> KOBEx8x : Fold
KOBEx8x said, "ak suited"
Kreks21 : Fold
Lupicaz : Fold
APJ72 : Fold
UBring_It_On: Call (50)
theCoinmaker: Raise (150)
UBring_It_On: Call (150)
*** FLOP *** : [ Qd Tc Jh ]
UBring_It_On: Check
theCoinmaker: Bet (200)
UBring_It_On: Call (200)
<font color="blue"> </font> UBring_It_On: Bet (300)
theCoinmaker: Call (300)
*** RIVER *** : [ Qd Tc Jh 6d ] [ 7d ]
UBring_It_On: Bet (325)
theCoinmaker: Call (325)
*** SUMMARY ***
Pot: 2,150 | Board: [ Qd Tc Jh 6d 7d ]
Kreks21 didn't bet (folded)
Lupicaz didn't bet (folded)
APJ72 didn't bet (folded)
UBring_It_On bet 1,075, collected 2,150, net +1,075 (showed hand) [ 6s 6h ] (three of a kind, sixes)
theCoinmaker lost 1,075 [ Js Ad ] (a pair of jacks)
KOBEx8x didn't bet (folded)

Game #809446046 (Level V, Game #3) - 50/100 No Limit Texas Hold'em - 2005/04/29-07:08:08.7 (CST)
Table "Makira" (\$5 tournament) -- Seat 6 is the button
Seat 2: Kreks21 (1,287.00 in chips)
Seat 4: Lupicaz (1,502.00 in chips)
Seat 5: APJ72 (1,886.00 in chips)
Seat 6: UBring_It_On (4,371.00 in chips)
Seat 8: theCoinmaker (45.00 in chips)
Seat 10: KOBEx8x (909.00 in chips)
theCoinmaker: Post Small Blind (45)
KOBEx8x : Post Big Blind (100)
Dealing...
<font color="blue"> </font> theCoinmaker said, "yeez"
Kreks21 : <font color="blue"> </font> theCoinmaker said, "nice call on flop"
Kreks21 said, <font color="blue"> </font> Lupicaz : Raise (300)
APJ72 : Fold
UBring <font color="blue"> </font> KOBEx8x : Call (200)
*** FLOP *** : [ 5s 3h 9c ]
theCoinmaker said, "cant believe you called me there"
KOBEx8x : Check
Lupicaz : Bet (300)
KOBEx8x : Call (300)
*** TURN *** : [ 5s 3h 9c ] [ 7h ]
KOBEx8x : Check
Lupicaz : Check
*** RIVER *** : [ 5s 3h 9c 7h ] [ 8s ]
UBring_It_On said, "yup"
KOBEx8x : Bet (309)
Lupicaz : Call (309)
KOBEx8x said, "gg"
*** SUMMARY ***
Pot: 135 | Side pot 1: 1,728 | Board: [ 5s 3h 9c 7h 8s ]
Kreks21 didn't bet (folded)
Lupicaz bet 909, collected 1,863, net +954 (showed hand) [ As Ks ] (high card ace)
APJ72 didn't bet (folded)
UBring_It_On didn't bet (folded) [ 6s 6c ] (a straight, five to nine)
theCoinmaker lost 45 (showed hand) [ Td 2s ] (high card ten)
KOBEx8x lost 909 (showed hand) [ Ts Ah ] (high card ace)

Game #809446509 (Level V, Game #4) - 50/100 No Limit Texas Hold'em - 2005/04/29-07:09:08.5 (CST)
Table "Makira" (\$5 tournament) -- Seat 6 is the button
Seat 2: Kreks21 (1,287.00 in chips)
Seat 4: Lupicaz (2,456.00 in chips)
Seat 5: APJ72 (1,886.00 in chips)
Seat 6: UBring_It_On (4,371.00 in chips)
Kreks21 : Post Small Blind (50)
Lupicaz : Post Big Blind (100)
Dealing...
<font color="blue"> </font> APJ72 : Fold
UBring_It_On: Call (100)
Kreks21 : Fold
Lupicaz : Check
*** FLOP *** : [ Jh 9d 3s ]
Lupicaz : Check
UBring_It_On: Check
<font color="blue"> </font> Lupicaz : Check
UBring_It_On: Bet (100)
Lupicaz : Call (100)
*** RIVER *** : [ Jh 9d 3s 6d ] [ 8d ]
Lupicaz : Bet (300)
UBring_It_On: Call (300)
*** SUMMARY ***
Pot: 1,050 | Board: [ Jh 9d 3s 6d 8d ]
Kreks21 lost 50 (folded)
Lupicaz bet 500, collected 1,050, net +550 (showed hand) [ 5d 2d ] (a flush, nine high)
APJ72 didn't bet (folded)
UBring_It_On lost 500 (showed hand) [ 6h 6c ] (three of a kind, sixes)

Game #809446955 (Level V, Game #5) - 50/100 No Limit Texas Hold'em - 2005/04/29-07:10:06.0 (CST)
Table "Makira" (\$5 tournament) -- Seat 2 is the button
Seat 2: Kreks21 (1,237.00 in chips)
Seat 4: Lupicaz (3,006.00 in chips)
Seat 5: APJ72 (1,886.00 in chips)
Seat 6: UBring_It_On (3,871.00 in chips)
Lupicaz : Post Small Blind (50)
APJ72 : Post Big Blind (100)
Dealing...
<font color="blue"> </font> UBring_It_On: Call (100)
Kreks21 : Call (100)
Lupicaz : Call (50)
APJ72 : Check
*** FLOP *** : [ 5h Qs 6h ]
Lupicaz : Check
APJ72 : Check
UBring_It_On: Check
Kreks21 : Bet (100)
Lupicaz : Fold
APJ72 : Fold
UBring_It_On: Call (100)
*** TURN *** : [ 5h Qs 6h ] [ 2h ]
UBring_It_On: Check
Kreks21 : Check
*** RIVER *** : [ 5h Qs 6h 2h ] [ 3c ]
UBring_It_On: Check
Kreks21 : Check
*** SUMMARY ***
Pot: 600 | Board: [ 5h Qs 6h 2h 3c ]
Kreks21 lost 200 (showed hand) [ 6d Ad ] (a pair of sixes)
Lupicaz lost 100 (folded)
APJ72 lost 100 (folded)
UBring_It_On bet 200, collected 600, net +400 (showed hand) [ 7s 7c ] (a pair of sevens)
-----------------------------------------------------

Yes
05-03-2005, 04:13 PM
yes you are going to hell /images/graemlins/grin.gif

UMTerp
05-03-2005, 04:44 PM
[ QUOTE ]

well the odds of you getting a pocket pair is 13/220.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's actually 1/17 unless I'm missing something obvious, but that's only slightly less than your 13/220.

FishHooks
05-03-2005, 05:40 PM
No it actually 13/220

closer2313
05-03-2005, 05:43 PM
The odds of you being dealt a pocket pair is 16:1.
The probability of being dealt a pocket pair is 1/17.

FishHooks
05-03-2005, 05:46 PM
yea sorry, i missused the words odds, the odds of getting a pocket pair are 1:221 the probality is 1/220.

UMTerp
05-03-2005, 06:01 PM
Why is it 13/220? I really don't think that's right.

You get your first card. There are 51 remaining cards in the deck. 3 of them will pair your originial card. 3/51 = 1/17, correct?

Or another way: you'll get a specific pocket pair 1/221 times. There are 13 different pairs you can get. 13/221 = 1/17.

closer2313
05-03-2005, 06:38 PM
It was because people were using the term odds as a synonym for probability. But odds and probability are different things.
Probability for a specific pair is 1/221
Odds for a specific pair is 1:220
They took the odds and multiplied it by 13 pairs to get the probability for being dealt any pair which is incorrect.

1/221 * 13 = 1/17 is the probability of being dealt any pair.
1:16 is the odds of being dealt any pair.

BigBaitsim (milo)
05-03-2005, 09:52 PM
Posted this one the day after it happened. Was at a live 6/12 at Canterbury, when the 7-seat gets AA three hands in a row and get cracked all three times. This was with two different decks and a Shufflemaster. He left a few hands later, but only after he got KK cracked. Bad day.