PDA

View Full Version : Chance of going broke

pokerjunky
05-01-2005, 08:06 PM
What is the minimum amount of big bets would an average 2BB/100 hands winning player need to have in his bankroll to have a 99.99 chance of not going broke over his lifetime?

olavfo
05-01-2005, 09:36 PM
To calculate this you need both the standard deviation and the win rate.

olavfo

pokerjunky
05-01-2005, 10:17 PM
[ QUOTE ]
To calculate this you need both the standard deviation and the win rate.

olavfo

[/ QUOTE ]

What does standard deviation mean?

Jacob_Gilliam
05-01-2005, 10:39 PM
Standard deviation is how much in a session or over a given period of time ones results differ or deviate from the average. If two people have the same BB/hr ratio, say 2/100, over the very long haul they will win the same ammount of money. But if one player has a higher SD, in the short term he is more likely to be further away from his true average (very aggresive players or playing in very aggressive games tends to cause your SD to be higher, while in passive games, passive players the converse is true). Therefore a player with a high SD is more likely to go on a longer downward run than someone with a smaller SD and more likely to bust his bankroll (hes also more likely to have bigger winning streaks too.)

pokerjunky
05-01-2005, 10:41 PM
So how do you calculate your standard deviation?

Jacob_Gilliam
05-01-2005, 10:52 PM
Pokertracker does it for you. If you dont have pokertracker, you need to know how much your going up or down per 100 hands. So for a sample of 10000 hands you have 100 results. For each sample record how far off the average you are (in one cycle you made 17bb- 15 off average, in the next cycle you lost 9- -11bb off average etc). Take all those results and square them individually (dont add them all together and then square them). Now add them all together, divide by the number of samples ( in this example 100), and take the square root of that number. The final number is your standard of deviation.