View Full Version : Three card Poker Element of Risk

04-29-2005, 12:17 PM
Hi. I am interested in this. If I wager 1000 on three card poker, on the ante & play bet, then I want to minimize the amount lost.

According to wizard of odds, you should raise Q64 or better to minimize HA, saying

'If you want to know why queen/6/4 is the borderline hand it is because if you raise on queen/6/3 you can expect to lose 1.00255 units, more than the 1 unit by folding. However if you raise on queen/6/4 the expected loss is .993378, less than the 1 unit by folding.'

It also provides that the HA is 3.37% and the EoR is 2.01%.

Therefore the average final wager size is 1.668 units, given that you raise Q64 or better.

The question of whether to raise a given hand in order to minimize the EoR is dependent on the expected loss, relative to the total amount bet and also to the long term EoR of the game.

In other words if we have determined that we stand to lose $20 in every $1000, then if we have a choice between losing $21 in $1001 or losing $21.05 in $1002, then losing $1.05 tends to minimize our EoR.

So the EoR in terms of deciding whether to raise a hand should be considered relative to the long-term EoR for the game.

You could come to an optimal strategy by trial and improvement.

Unfortunately although Q64 minimizes HA, it clearly does not minimize EoR, and I am uncertain which hand does.

Can anyobyd help?