View Full Version : how likely am i to hit the flop?

04-27-2005, 01:52 AM
if i have 2 cards, what are the chances that i will make pair one of my cards or better, they are not suited.

04-27-2005, 04:14 AM
Off the cuff: 33% if they're not at all connected (you said pair or better), maybe 35% if they are no-gap connected.

04-27-2005, 09:26 AM
Your post is not very specific. I am going to assume you are not including straights. Lets assume you have AK the following is the probability that the flop comes with one (A or K), an A and K, two (A or K), full house with A/k or four of a kind.

You have 50 unseen cards 3 A, 3 K, and 44 other cards. The probability that you hit one or more of your AK cards is 1 minus the probability that you hit non.

= 1 - (44c3)/(50c3) = 32.42%

A rule of thumb for the flop when you are wondering what the probabilities of hitting one or more of your outs is 5.5% * outs. Most of the numbers derived by the above formula are good to within 1%.

Ex 1. You have A 7 the probability of you hitting your ace is 3*5.5=16.5%. This is the same for the seven. the brobability of A or 7 or both is 6*5.5 = 33%.

Ex 2. You have KQ you are wondering the probability the flop will have an Ace. 4 outs * 5.5% = 22%