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aaronjacobg
04-25-2005, 04:46 PM
I own a Vince Carter signed basketball card with a piece of the court on it. It has been listed in a magazine for \$800 but such is the market that one can only sell it for a fraction of the listed price. Recently, I put the card on E-bay and the best offer that i got was \$200.

More recently, i offered the card to one of my friends. He offered to play me in one open hand of hold'em for it. If he won i give it to him for free. If i win he pays me \$300 for it. Is it worth it? I am heavily leaning towards no so i made him a counter offer. The offer that i made him was that if it was a tie he pays me double, or \$600. Am i coming close to equitability? Any other ideas for a deal in my favor?

Thanx

Jake

edthayer
04-25-2005, 09:02 PM
That sounds like a bad deal to me. If you sell it for \$200, you get \$200 100% of the time. If you decide to take the gamble, you win \$300 about half the time, and win nothing about half the time. In both cases, you lose the card no matter what. I don't know what the probability of a tie is, but I know it doesn't happen often. Ask for \$400 if you win.

04-25-2005, 11:45 PM
EV = (chance of winning)(reward for winning) - (chance of losing)(cost of losing).

Assuming you value the card at 200\$, you'd net 100\$, (300\$ - 200\$), 50% of the time, and lose 200 50% of the time.

so 100*.5 + (-200\$*.5) = -50. That's 50 dollars you lose everytime you run the trade.

mannika
04-26-2005, 02:00 AM
[ QUOTE ]
I own a Vince Carter signed basketball card with a piece of the court on it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Burn it.

//disgruntled Torontonian