View Full Version : Party Poker High Hand Jackpot, anyone know the odds?

04-18-2005, 03:34 AM
Does anyone know what the EV per hand is of sitting at one of the new high hand jackpot tables?

If not, does anyone know the odds of being dealt a royal flush while using both hole cards and what the odds are of being at a table where someone else is dealt a royal flush using both hole cards (assuming 9 other players)?

04-18-2005, 05:01 AM
bump (even though this thread is still at the top)

We are estimating the value of this promotion at .154 per hand, which comes out to about $30 per hour 4-tabling $2/$4 (plus your winnings).

Is this like one of those promotions that we need to take advantage of as written about by Sklansky, Malmuth, & Co.?

EDIT: estimations in this thread (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=2179793&page=0&view=colla psed&sb=5&o=14&fpart=&vc=1)

04-18-2005, 09:23 PM
Think you can only really do this through estimations.

If you assumed that you played every single royal flush possible hand you were dealt (10*4 of them), and saw to the river on each one, the odds against the royal flush (using both of your cards) is 64973:1. This works out to $0.154 per hand assuming a $10k payoff

However, I'd say that if you are attempting to play profitable poker, you'd end up folding maybe 15-20% of those 10 hands preflop, you'd be folding the flop 5% of the time, and other complications (pot not being raked, your raise resulting in no flop, etc.) would probably account for another 5-10% of the value of this.

Given all these decrements, I think a good figure for the value of the high hand jackpot is about (0.154)*(0.825)*(0.925)*(0.95) = $0.11/10000*(total jackpot*70%) per hand.

Next we equate this to the expected cost. If you are playing TAG, about 6-7% of your total hands will be winners (and will be raked). Therefore, you expect to pay (0.50)*(0.065) = 3.25 cents per hand.

Therefore, equating the two equations we get a target jackpot of about $4200. I think that it would be +EV to play these tables if the jackpot is greater than this amount.

Please correct any errors in my math/assumptions.

04-24-2005, 04:42 AM
Excellent work! I asked this about a few months back and got no real answers. thanks mannika