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Punker
04-14-2005, 10:30 PM
Given 15,000 random hands, how many sets do you expect to flop? Im guessing like 110 or so (15000 divided by 17 divided by 8). Is there something wrong with my math?

gaming_mouse
04-14-2005, 11:03 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Given 15,000 random hands, how many sets do you expect to flop? Im guessing like 110 or so (15000 divided by 17 divided by 8). Is there something wrong with my math?

[/ QUOTE ]

Should be 8.5 instead of 8. Aside from that, your reasoning is almost correct. The problem is that it assumes you will see a flop with every pocket pair you're dealt. In fact, sometimes you will be folding small pocket pairs against early position raises with no callers, or when you're faced with 3-cold, etc. So the true answer will be slightly less than the answer yielded using your method.

FishHooks
04-15-2005, 08:12 AM
yea multiply it by .12 instead of dividing by 8 for a more accurate result.

kiddj
04-15-2005, 10:56 AM
That's a good approximation. If I assume you want to include times when you flop quads, the actual expected number would be 105 to 106. Plus, you should discount this by the times you fold your pp preflop as an earlier poster stated.