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P Miller
11-01-2002, 03:21 PM
The 5-10 game was rolling along and then this wager happened!!!!! Player in 7 seat bet player in 4 seat that an Ace, Jack or two would come on the flop. Player in 4 seat figured he was getting 4-1 that and Ace, Jack or, Two wouldn't come on this even money bet. I don't think that number sounds right? The bet happened everytime there was a flop, final outcome 7 seat won (9 of 13 times). The game really got crazy after that.

marbles
11-01-2002, 03:42 PM
"Player in 7 seat bet player in 4 seat that an Ace, Jack or two would come on the flop. Player in 4 seat figured he was getting 4-1 that and Ace, Jack or, Two wouldn't come on this even money bet."
Seat 4 has a thing or two to learn. He's getting hustled. If the bet were "An A, J or 2 will come in ONE DRAW OF A CARD," then the p success would be 12/52, or 23%. But that's not the bet.

This is another case where it's easier to calculate the probability of failure on each trial, then take the difference between it and 1.

p (failure, card 1): 40/52
p (failure, card 2): 39/51
p (failure, card 3): 38/50

Multiply the three fractions together to get the probability of failure all three times, and you get p (total failure)=.447.

Thus, p (success at least once) is 1-.447, or .553. On even money action, Seat 7 should make this bet on as many flops as possible.

Bozeman
11-01-2002, 11:09 PM
If you could choose when to take this wager, you could win on either side:

If you have none, none will flop 38/50*37/49*36/48=43.0% of the time.

If you have one, 39/50*38/49*37/48=46.6%

With 2, 40/50*39/49*38/48=50.4%, so there better be no rake.

Craig

BruceZ
11-02-2002, 09:17 AM
If you can look at your cards, then your opponent can look at his cards too. To make money on either side, you would have to be the one betting that it would either happen or that it wouldn't happen based on your cards, and your opponent would have to always accept your bet regardless of his cards. If your opponent could refuse the bet, and you bet that it won't happen when you have 2, then he should only accept when he has 0, and he will win 51.2% of the time. He would never accept when you bet it will occur.

Similarly, if he is the one betting that it will occur based on his cards, and he knows you will accept when you have 2, he would only bet when he has 0 and he would win 51.2% of the time. So if he knows this, you could never accept.

P Miller
11-03-2002, 01:57 AM
The wager took place each time before any cards were dealt out. What really amazed me how player in 7 seat kept going on about getting the worst of it. Yea, player in 4 seat was definatly hustled out of \$450.