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FlyingStart
04-12-2005, 10:01 AM
If you are sitting with two cards suited, what is the exact probability that that either two or three more cards of the same suit will flop?

diebitter
04-12-2005, 10:54 AM
Prob in % are:
0 match = 46.6%
1 match = 40.5%
2 match = 10.7%
3 match = 0.8%

(I think - I worked it out by hand!)

I could be wrong though /images/graemlins/smile.gif

kiddj
04-12-2005, 12:15 PM
Exactly 3 cards to make the flush: 0.84%
Only 2 cards to give you the draw: 11.22%
Either event makes you happy: 12.07%

So, is it a good idea to see the flop with any 2 suited cards?

PygmyHero
04-12-2005, 12:16 PM
You have suited cards.

Number of ways to make a four flush on the flop:
C(11,2) * C(39,1) = 2145

Number of way to flop a flush:
C(11,3) = 165

Since there are C(50,3) = 19,600 possible flops here are your aswers:

Four flush: 2145/19600 = 10.9% or 8.1:1 against.
Flush: 165/19600 = 0.84% or 117.8:1 against:
Four flush or flush: 2310/19600 = 11.8% or 7.5:1 against.

FlyingStart
04-12-2005, 12:37 PM
Thx.. This will be good to have in mind when evaluating whether or not to see a flop with cards that don't have much value besides the flush oppurtunity. With 12% chance of hitting either a flush draw or finished flush, hands like 39s might be worth playing from the small blind.

kiddj
04-12-2005, 01:07 PM
[ QUOTE ]
You have suited cards.

Number of ways to make a four flush on the flop:
C(11,2) * C(39,1) = 2145

Number of way to flop a flush:
C(11,3) = 165

Since there are C(50,3) = 19,600 possible flops here are your aswers:

Four flush: 2145/19600 = 10.9% or 8.1:1 against.
Flush: 165/19600 = 0.84% or 117.8:1 against:
Four flush or flush: 2310/19600 = 11.8% or 7.5:1 against.

[/ QUOTE ]

My bad. I worked the four-flush slightly wrong. I do these in a strange long-hand way, so it's easy to mess up a calc. My corrected calc for the 4 flush only is: ((11/50)*(10/49)*(39/48))*3 = 10.9%