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10-18-2002, 06:29 AM
The score is tied in the bottom of the ninth. Two outs. Bases empty. Barry Bonds is up. Assume he will either single (26% probability), homer (8%), or make out. The two batters behind him will each single 30% of the time and make out the rest. Should he be intentionally walked? Please answer only yes or no.

10-18-2002, 10:13 AM
yes

10-18-2002, 10:16 AM

10-18-2002, 10:21 AM

DJA
10-18-2002, 12:05 PM

DJA
10-18-2002, 12:09 PM

Jimbo
10-18-2002, 12:14 PM
Yes

Jimbo

Homer
10-18-2002, 12:48 PM
YES again

sizeup
10-18-2002, 03:13 PM

10-18-2002, 03:25 PM
not enough info.
if he gets walked or a single, how many singles does it take for him to score?
i'll assume two.

if so, walk him.
actually, either way walk him, but that info should have been included.

Homer
10-18-2002, 04:26 PM
I assumed it takes two singles to get him home, although this might not be right under the circumstances presented. In a normal situation, it will typically take two singles, but with the score tied in the bottom of the ninth, the outfield will be drawn in, so a single is less likely to get the winning run home, I think. However, the probably of getting a hit will increase (because any long fly ball will now be a hit) too, so (probability of getting a hit) * (probability of run scoring given a hit) probably stays close to constant (just a guess)...now I'm rambling. In any event, I would just assume two for this problem, unless you want to start to make things more complicated for yourself. /forums/images/icons/grin.gif

Bob T.
10-18-2002, 05:04 PM
NO

10-18-2002, 07:55 PM

Zeno
10-18-2002, 10:15 PM
NO!

(I might, however, change the pitcher). /forums/images/icons/wink.gif

-Zeno

Trefo
10-18-2002, 10:17 PM
I'd walk him.

BruceZ
10-18-2002, 10:30 PM
You should walk him only if he will successfuly steal less than 36% of the time.