View Full Version : Would You Walk Barry Bonds?

10-18-2002, 06:29 AM
The score is tied in the bottom of the ninth. Two outs. Bases empty. Barry Bonds is up. Assume he will either single (26% probability), homer (8%), or make out. The two batters behind him will each single 30% of the time and make out the rest. Should he be intentionally walked? Please answer only yes or no.

10-18-2002, 10:13 AM

10-18-2002, 10:16 AM

10-18-2002, 10:21 AM

10-18-2002, 12:05 PM

10-18-2002, 12:09 PM

10-18-2002, 12:14 PM


10-18-2002, 12:48 PM
YES again

10-18-2002, 03:13 PM

10-18-2002, 03:25 PM
not enough info.
if he gets walked or a single, how many singles does it take for him to score?
i'll assume two.

if so, walk him.
actually, either way walk him, but that info should have been included.

10-18-2002, 04:26 PM
I assumed it takes two singles to get him home, although this might not be right under the circumstances presented. In a normal situation, it will typically take two singles, but with the score tied in the bottom of the ninth, the outfield will be drawn in, so a single is less likely to get the winning run home, I think. However, the probably of getting a hit will increase (because any long fly ball will now be a hit) too, so (probability of getting a hit) * (probability of run scoring given a hit) probably stays close to constant (just a guess)...now I'm rambling. In any event, I would just assume two for this problem, unless you want to start to make things more complicated for yourself. /forums/images/icons/grin.gif

Bob T.
10-18-2002, 05:04 PM

bad beetz
10-18-2002, 07:55 PM

10-18-2002, 10:15 PM

(I might, however, change the pitcher). /forums/images/icons/wink.gif


10-18-2002, 10:17 PM
I'd walk him.

10-18-2002, 10:30 PM
You should walk him only if he will successfuly steal less than 36% of the time.