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NoPepperJack
01-20-2005, 10:10 PM
In the past four days, I have been blessed with KK preflop four times.(Texas Holdem) Twice in a 3-6 game, twice in a NL Tournament.
I have been beaten 3 of the four times. In the three six game the opponent called me down with a small pair and caught the second pair with the river card. Later in the same game, same guy had AA to my KK preflop and I called him down. NL Tourn, I catch KK and it holds up, twenty or so hands later, I catch KK and go all in against what turns out to be AA. I lose again....

Probability question (I have no idea how to calculate this, am just real curious)

What is the chance that you will be against AA when you have KK? I would be real surprized if it is 50%!

Jack
NoPepperJack

gaming_mouse
01-20-2005, 10:21 PM
Given your KK, the chance of being up against an AA with 7 oppos is:

(7 * (6 / (50 choose 2))) - ((7 choose 2) * (6 / (50 choose 2)) * (1 / (48 choose 2))) = 0.0341945289

About 3.5% versus 7 players. It will be a little higher vs 9 players.

gm

NoPepperJack
01-21-2005, 06:09 PM

NoPepperJack

01-26-2005, 05:25 PM
are you sure this answer is correct? odds of being dealt AA is 1/200 approx which is 0.5%

Jon Poker
01-26-2005, 05:36 PM
I believe he is correct given 7 opponents.
.5 * 7 = 3.5.

technologic
01-26-2005, 05:50 PM
me and a friend calculated the correct probability before, but i'm not sure it is true.

given that you have KK, there are 50 cards left in the deck. the probability of getting AA is then:

4/50 * 3/49 = .004897959

In a 10 handed table, that is around 9x this figure that someone will have AA

9 * .004897959 = 4.4%

or approximately 1 out of every 22.68 times you get dealt KK in a full ring game

gaming_mouse
01-26-2005, 06:13 PM
[ QUOTE ]
are you sure this answer is correct? odds of being dealt AA is 1/200 approx which is 0.5%

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. You are not taking into account that you have 7 "tries", so to speak, because you up against 7 oppos.

gaming_mouse
01-26-2005, 06:15 PM
[ QUOTE ]
me and a friend calculated the correct probability before, but i'm not sure it is true.

given that you have KK, there are 50 cards left in the deck. the probability of getting AA is then:

4/50 * 3/49 = .004897959

In a 10 handed table, that is around 9x this figure that someone will have AA

9 * .004897959 = 4.4%

or approximately 1 out of every 22.68 times you get dealt KK in a full ring game

[/ QUOTE ]

Multiplying by 9 will give you a decent approximation. However, you need to use the method that I used to get an exact answer. I did it for 7 players, you can extrapolate to get it for 9. The exact answer and your approximation will be within 1% of each other, I'd say.

gm

gaming_mouse
01-26-2005, 06:17 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I believe he is correct given 7 opponents.
.5 * 7 = 3.5.

[/ QUOTE ]

Again, this method gives a good approximation (very good, in this case), but is not exact. I did not do all those calcualtions just to be fancy. I was showing the way you find an exact solution for this problem.

gm