View Full Version : why sirius wont make it

Ray Zee
01-20-2005, 07:39 PM
if you read back what i have said about this stock you may or may not agree. but here is a new twist that i believe will doom it at some point.
the new apple i pods. they hold up to 10,000 songs. now car stereo makers are making their radios with an i pod plugin. so why on earth would anyone want to pay 12 bucks a month for music when in minutes you can download from your computer all your cds into the i pod. people may still want talk and howard stern type stuff, but music drives the future of the stock. just one more nail in the coffin.
i currently have no interest in buying or selling this stock.

01-20-2005, 08:40 PM
news and other content, that is why I would buy it, but do they have the content? can they share with broadcast radio?

01-20-2005, 09:05 PM
An iPod, as you alluded, is just an extension of CDs. If you think the only reason that radio is still around is because of some transportation/convenience issue with recorded music (whether it be recorded on vinyl, cassette, or CD), you probably haven't thought much about the situation.

That guy
01-20-2005, 09:41 PM
seems like an obvious case for integrating the two technologies. there is no technical reason why you can't have satellite radio delivered through an iPod.

personally. I own an iPod and a $29 radio armband thing which I alternate when working out -- depending on what I want... works pretty well as is...

01-20-2005, 09:42 PM
You can't listen to sports and traffic radio (or any live event)on an iPod.

I personally think that at some point there is going to be Wi Fi points everywhere making telephone, cable, radio and cellphones obsolete.

01-20-2005, 10:11 PM
If you really believe this why no interest in selling short, or buying puts?

01-20-2005, 11:27 PM
Oh, and to everyone saying, "But there's news and sports on radio!": He said he realizes this, but doesn't think that's enough to support satellite radio. But he's taken that into consideration, no need to repeat it.

Ray Zee
01-21-2005, 03:05 AM
broadcast is around because its free. and you get local news and weather free. and local traffic free. but you pay with your time in wasted listening to junk. but its free. the majority of the world still goes for things free.

Ray Zee
01-21-2005, 03:09 AM
i know of no way to time stocks rise and fall. so on this i stay on the sidelines. but when it hit eight it was a joke in my eyes. but these stocks with a flair and a product that people like sometimes run for a long time before they seek their proper value.

greg nice
01-21-2005, 10:36 AM
this stock recently flew because of the howard stern hype. the best time to sell a stock is when everyone is hyping it. it was overvalued at $4, overvalued at $6, and overvalued at $9.

01-21-2005, 11:00 AM
Come on Ray, you know better! Broadcast isn't around because it's free because it isn't free! There are tons of advertisers, how do you think stations survive? Essentially satellite radio is just a pay service without the commercials. Sounds good to me - and a lot of other people. I currently don't have satellite radio but only because I don't commute enough, if I did I would definitely have it. I listen to the radio stations on my DirecTV quite a bit. If you want to listen to a random assortment from a specific genre there's nothing better.

As another poster said, though, the future is in combination iPods and satellite radios. I'm thinking sort of like an on-demand type service. Licensing is the real issue with this, but if it could be worked out it's the real future.

01-21-2005, 01:44 PM
Funny you should mention this. My wife got me an IPod for christmas. Haven't used my car radio very much since, only when I forgot my IPod. It's crazy how much music you can put on one of those things.

01-21-2005, 07:05 PM

A few comments on your comments:

1. Before the death of either XM and Sirius - they will most likely merge.

2. Stern going to Sirus is like the NFL package going to DirectTV - if you want Stern you will pay to listen. I'll bet Stern moves at least 2 million listeners to Sirius. Stern will also sell advertising and add even more revenue.

3. In my opinion, the Ipod and other like tech will make the CD players obsolete before it destroys radio or sat radio.

4. Realizing that both XM and Sirius(even with Stern) are tremendously overvalued - people like you who live in remote areas have the most to gain by having greater "radio" options than were previously available in Montana.

Future Sirius customer in Dec 05.

Mark Heide
01-24-2005, 02:22 AM

I agree that Sirus will not make it, but it is not about music, since free radio broadcasts just about represent the current demographics of the market. What Sirus will have to do is offer broadcasts that are unique, just like cable tv did. If Sirus can get a heavy line up of sports stations, and lets say make a deal to be the only one that broadcasts games that you are unable to get on free radio, they may have a chance. I look at the situation just like the cable tv vs. free broadcast situation. If they do not market themselves this way, they are doomed.

Good Luck


01-24-2005, 01:44 PM
Merrill Lynch disagrees with Ray Zee /images/graemlins/shocked.gif

Ray Zee
01-24-2005, 08:22 PM
that strengthens my position.

Ray Zee
01-24-2005, 08:27 PM
midas you are probably right that it will replace the cd player. i didnt really consider that. also i think having sirius is a good thing, but believe it cant stand up to a pay each month format. if they merge with something then it changes everything. also its value as it will likely be goobled up as its stock goes under. ultimately from satillets and towers we will get it all in one package. phone music radio tv etc. who will provide that package i dont have the foggyest notion. but i am sure it wont be sirius. more likely verizon or similar.

01-25-2005, 04:44 PM
that strengthens my position

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I may not agree on SIRI in the S/T, but I like the way you think /images/graemlins/grin.gif

01-25-2005, 07:06 PM
If Sirus can get a heavy line up of sports stations, and lets say make a deal to be the only one that broadcasts games that you are unable to get on free radio, they may have a chance.

[/ QUOTE ]
They have this.

I look at the situation just like the cable tv vs. free broadcast situation.

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So does the rest of the world.

If they do not market themselves this way, they are doomed.

[/ QUOTE ]
But they do /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

01-25-2005, 07:18 PM
I have Sirius and love it. Not only that, but most of my friends have Sirius or XM and love them too. I don't mind paying 10 or 12 a month (which is nothing compared to my cable, cell phone, etc.) for a service that offers commercial free and uncensored radio.

Also, I mostly listen to music and with all the stations they offer, I don't see why I would ever have to buy a CD or mp3 again.

Lastly, you couldn't buy a Sirius radio around here before Xmas. They were all sold out by the second week of December, and I believe they're still back ordered (over a month later) even if you order them directly from Sirius's website.

This company is here to stay.

01-25-2005, 09:02 PM

This company is here to stay.

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My wife loves the Sirius I got her for xmas. And I think you got it half right. Sirius will be around for a while, but the Sirius shares will not. Their cash burn makes bankruptcy a high likelyhood. They'll eventually be merged into XM, but the shares will be worthless.

Ray Zee
01-25-2005, 09:21 PM
very good desertcat that how i see it somewhat. this comapny cannot be worth ten billion or whatever it is valued at now. so when you buy or own shares of it, you have your diluted share of that ficitious value.

01-26-2005, 11:11 AM
Long-term projected future earnings has to be driving this share price.

Anyway, I tend to agree that this stock is overvalued, but you never know. They offer a great product, and with more car manufactures offering it as an added option it could be around for a while.

Burning cash is typical of a developing company. They still have 1/2 billion in cash on the books and huge gains in revenue. If they can turn a profit, they can make it.

I don't see XM buying them, but even if they or someone else did, it will be @ above market value.

01-26-2005, 06:10 PM
We know that satellite radio has a good grasp in commuting and cars. How about the home? College kids? Educational networks in high schools? Satellite radio has much more potential then a travel to work. I know growing up we did not watch to much TV in the morning...the radio was on.

Other comments about Ipod and listening to music makes Ipods convenient. But for some reason watching Seinfeld on TV seems a little more interesting then buying the DVDs. That is what radio gives you...randomness, the thrill of catching the song you want and the personalities that talk to you.

Relative that works for onstar, talked about how satellite radio does traffic for specific areas through GPS with onstar. Just thought it was interesting.

All in all, I think satellite radio has much more uses then the commute to work.

Reply with some thoughts!

01-26-2005, 06:34 PM
All I use it for now is my commute, but you have a good point. My father is an avid sailor and has been talking about buying one for the boat. Some of his friends already have.

Sirius would be good for traveling long distances where you can't get stations or they go in and out. So it would be good for boaters and truckers. Also anyone living in the sticks were they only get 4 stations, and they're all Jesus rock /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

I haven't hooked Sirius up to my home system yet, but I probably will soon.

01-28-2005, 03:35 AM
Just an FYI, Sirius has a market cap of 8 billion dollars.
Oh yeah, and they lose a ton of money every year. Anyone want to calculate their break even point number of subscribers. Find that number and you'll follow my lead on a short of the stock. Dont get me wrong, its a good product, just rediculously overpriced.


01-28-2005, 06:41 AM
Something like 53,000,000 in 2001 to 113,000,000 in 2004. They're authorized to issue 250,000,000. I just made a cursory glance of the 10-Q. Looks like they're going back to the markets to raise more money by selling shares periodically which means that your piece of the company is being diluted on an ongoing basis. Sirius might have a great product and they might well grow into some real earnings but I can't see a lot of upside at this juncture. Just because a company has good products and a good future doesn't make the price of their stock a good value.

Dan Mezick
01-28-2005, 08:56 AM
It's also a cult stock, highly charged with the primitive emotions of the crowd.

The day-trading wing of the current set of shareholders make this stock very volatile.

I strongly suspect that any hiccups whatsoever along the way regarding Howard Stern migrating to SIRI would be extremely negative for this stock.

Joe Tall
01-30-2005, 06:50 PM
up to 10,000 songs. now car stereo makers are making their radios with an i pod plugin. so why on earth would anyone want to pay 12 bucks a month for music when in minutes you can download from your computer all your cds into the i pod.

Hi Ray,

Now, you know I jumped on the stock and dumped it. Granted it may be doomed but I don't like your thinking here. Are you going to listen to the same 10k songs the rest of your life?

Sirius Satellite Radio has opened up my Musical range. I have found so many new artist I've never heard about or would have never heard about via terrestrial raido. This is the main reasons I have the product.

Go Pats!
Joe Tall

01-31-2005, 07:20 PM
do what you want, but if you guys want to get in on more stocks before they run, join our group pick. The next group buy i scheduled 02/07/2005:


If you dont like the group's pick you dont have to buy it. But you have to break your order into parts in order to get in early. The price usually raises quickly..

02-02-2005, 02:22 PM
I personally hated the idea of sirius and XM for years, figuring the only market would be truck drivers and those who spend hours a day in their car.
But, now realizing the proprietary content, I think it may work eventually for XMSR or SIRI, or maybe itll be someone else. Plus, while I live in NYC, I realize there are many people in this country who probably only have 6 radio stations, or perhaps even less, and this would certainly appeal to them. Hell, just this past week the one of the final areas in the US got telephone land lines installed
NEW ORLEANS Mink, Louisiana, has entered a new era of communications -- it now has telephones.

The rural settlement had been one of the last places in the nation without phone service. That all changed Monday when they were finally hooked up. Louisiana Governor Kathleen Blanco placed a ceremonial phone call to 83-year-old resident Alma Bolton.

BellSouth spent 700-thousand dollars -- about 47-thousand per phone -- to extend 30 miles of cable through thick forests to Mink, about 100 miles south of Shreveport.

Cell phones worked in Mink, but only in a few locations.

It didn't take resident Elaine Edwards long to find out that having a phone can be a mixed blessing. Fifteen minutes after hers was installed, a telemarketer called.

She told him she wasn't interested and hung up.

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So there are a lot of areas where this may not be a luxury, but almost a neccesity