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gasoltub
01-19-2005, 08:11 PM
Disclaimer: I have used the search function. But perhaps this is too simple to be mentioned here. And yes, I'm new at this.

Anyway...

I'm learning about calculating odds so I thought I'd post one here just to verify that I'm doing it right.

The odds in question is backdoor flush draw. Lets say I have pocket hearts and flop is one heart and two other. What's the odds of making a flush by the river?

After the flop there are 47 cards left in the deck and 10 of them are hearts. That gives me about 21% chance to hit a heart on the turn.
If hit a heart on the turn there are 46 cards left in the deck and 9 of them are hearts. That means about 20% to get a heart on the river.

So I would have 0.21*0.2 = 4.2% chance to get a flush by the river. The reciprocal of 4.2% is roughly 24. So I would get my flush once every 24 times. Which makes me a 23:1 dog.

Correct?

gaming_mouse
01-19-2005, 08:35 PM
Correct.

EDIT: On a more practical note, you can consider your backdoor flush draw to be worth one additional "out." Of course, this applies only on the flop, because if you miss the turn it then becomes worthless.

gasoltub
01-19-2005, 08:55 PM
I read somewhere that Miller consider it 1.5 outs. Or would that be to the river?

gaming_mouse
01-19-2005, 09:38 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I read somewhere that Miller consider it 1.5 outs. Or would that be to the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, he does. I will use 1 or 1.5 depending on the situation and how dangerous it seems. Here's the SSH quote (p 102):

...a backdoor flush draw is worth about one out. It is usually worth slightly more because when you do not pick up your draw on fourth street, you can fold (saving a bet). Also, if you do compolete your flush, your observant opponents will often not supsect it (as they would if a third flush card came to a flopped two flush), so you can frequently collect extra river bets. A reasonable estimate for the value a backdoor flush draw adds is 1.5 outs.

gasoltub
01-19-2005, 11:01 PM
Thanks