View Full Version : chances of flopping a set

01-19-2005, 04:54 PM
If you have a pocket pair, what are your chances of flopping a set? I made a bet that it was 1 in 7.5. Good bet? Please justify with math. thanks a lot

01-19-2005, 06:00 PM
Hope you didn't bet a lot of money. Your odds of flopping a set are actually 1 in 8.7.

There are C(2,1)*C(48,2)=2256 ways to flop a set. There are C(50,3)=19600 different flops. This works out to 2256/19600 = 1/8.688.

If you rephrase slightly to say flop a set or better so that you include the possibility of quads (happens another 48 ways), you'd get a total of 2304/19600 = 1/8.5, or 1 in 8.5. (This works out in odds form to 1:7.5, which is probably what you were thinking, so unfortunately your number is still wrong even if you include quads.)