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jalsing
01-14-2005, 03:53 PM
So I'm playing the other night, and am dealt 66. Flopped a set, turned quads, how nice. Won a huge pot against someones pp who rivered a full house. Next hand, I'm dealt 77 and flop the quads. Pot wasn't so big, nobody caught up by the river, but I did show it after the river, the room was of course amazed.

What kind of odds are we looking at here for this to happen back to back?

first I must be dealt PP back to back, which has to be fairly low probability in itself. Then to quad up both times?

Thanks,
Jason

lossage
01-15-2005, 12:51 AM
[ QUOTE ]
first I must be dealt PP back to back, which has to be fairly low probability in itself. Then to quad up both times?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I'll bite. First of all, the probability of getting dealt a pocket pair is 5.88%. Once you have a pocket pair, the odds of hitting quads if you stay all the way to the river are C(48,3)/C(50,5) = 0.00816. So, the probability of the two combined is about 0.048%.

The probability of this scenario happening twice consecutively is about (0.000480)^2 = 2.306 * 10^(-7). For those of you keeping score, those odds are a shade better than 4.34 million to 1.

Note: This assumes you stay all the way with your pair no matter what, including the runner-runner case. The probability is worse if you demand that you at least have to flop a set to stick around.

Slow Play Ray
01-18-2005, 10:04 AM
I once had had quads 3 out of 5 hands at Foxwoods (all w/ one in my hand and 3 on the board), and 2 players seriously accused the dealer of collusion, and called the floor.

Rah
01-18-2005, 05:59 PM
You don't need a pocket pair to get quads.

jimymat
01-19-2005, 03:12 AM
so is your cousin still workoing there?

Slow Play Ray
01-19-2005, 09:35 AM
[ QUOTE ]
so is your cousin still working there?

[/ QUOTE ]

ha...nah, it really was just crazy luck. or maybe she just liked me, haha.

Reaction
01-19-2005, 10:06 AM
A little off subject. I was playing pai-gow once and got a straight flush, but dindt play the envy bonus. The dealer told me that once you hit a nice hand like that, it is usually followed by a pai-gow. So, I took his advice and skipped the envy bonus again, and got 4 of a kind. I was upset, so I threw a chip on the envy, and got another 4 of a kind. I know the odds are way different since there is no folding in pai-gow, but your question reminded me of that situation, so I thought I'd share.