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Supern
01-14-2005, 08:28 AM
Does anyone know the probabilities that someone has a
higher suited hand when I have one?
That is being delt one, not playing it.
I play in microlimit so I know they play em. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

What is the probability in % that someone has a higher
suited hand (same suit of course /images/graemlins/smile.gif ) when I have:
10 players

1. KXs
2. QXs
3. JXs
4. TXs
5. 5Xs

For instance if i have K4 diamonds how likely is it someone has AX diamonds.

5. Do you raise with KXs if someone bet when the flush card hits on the turn? (given no pair on board and no read)

6. Do you raise with QXs if someone bet when the flush card hits on the turn? (given no pair on board and no read)

7. Do you raise with JXs if someone bet when the flush card hits on the turn? (given no pair on board and no read)

8. Do you raise with 6Xs if someone bet when the flush card hits on the turn? (given no pair on board and no read)

I have heard that when you have a suited hand it's about 20% that another player has been delt the same suit in his hand (both cards). And its about 2% that two players have same suit. 10 players at the table.
Anyone know if these numbers are correct?

I just want to know the delt probablities. Not if they play them or not. Thats up to them. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Supern
01-14-2005, 10:45 AM
Any wiz have the answers to this?

Cobra
01-14-2005, 12:27 PM
This is a little more complicated than that because some of the cards you are interested in may be in the board. What I mean is if you are interested in the probability that JX's is beat and there is a A's on the board this will change your probabilities. That said I can give you some answers.

Let x = The number of suited cards higher than yours that are not out. ( You have Jx's and the board has a Q's in it x would equal two which would represent the K and A suited.)

X=
0 = 0%
1 = 6.4%
2 = 11.6%
3 = 15.8%
4 = 19%
5 = 21.4%
6 = 23%
7 = 23.8%

If you were playing 7 handed:

x=
1 = 4%
2 = 7.8%
3 = 10.7%
4 = 12.9%
5 = 14.6%
6 = 15.7%
7 = 16.2%

This is the probability someone was dealt two of your suit with at least one card higher than your's.

Cobra

Supern
01-14-2005, 01:32 PM
That means if you have a small flush its only about 75% safe win (without pair on board).

Do you value bet small flushes on river?
Or is that losing play?
I mean micro-limit now and no read.

I think its a losing play cause if they have higher they
may raise and if they dont have flush they probably wont call. But im not sure.

Did you use some software to achieve the numbers?

KillerDucky
01-14-2005, 04:05 PM
Suppose you are in the BB with 3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif. Everyone at the table with any two suited cards comes to play (including junk like 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif, and also of course whatever other random hands they come with). The flop comes with 2 hearts, so obviously now the other hands with two hearts stay, and you also stay. By the river suppose its down to just you and one opponent, say the button, and the flush comes. Do you bet?

Assume the button will always raise any flush (this is worst case, the button may not raise with a crappy 5 high flush). What percentage of the time does he have to call with a worse hand to make the river bet profitable?

There are 7 higher flushes, so 23.8% you will be raised (you call and lose 2BB). He calls X% and you win 1BB.

1*x - 2*.238 &gt;= 0

x must be &gt;= 47.6%

x will be lower if not everyone comes with their crazy suited cards, or people don't raise with their very low flushes. Also this is for when you have the worst possible flush, most of the time you'll have a much better flush then 3 high.

BillFranklin
01-14-2005, 09:52 PM
question for Cobra (or any that can help) what math are you using?

I'm asking because i'm new to probabilities and trying to learn as much as i can. I recently bouth Petriv's odds book which has helped and searched various internet sites. I found a formula that i thought worked until reading your post which also matches the info on http://www.math.sfu.ca/~alspach/computations.html
(I'll admit i'm having a hard time understanding the equations on that site)

But to get to the point. Can you explain where i went wrong here:
Odds of losing with a king high flush to higher flush-10 handed

Com(47,2) 1,081 Starting hands
Com (8,2) 28 Suited cards
(1-28/1,081)*(1-28/1,080)...(1-28/1073) .21107% no one has another flush
Com(7,2) 21 Flushes that don't contain aces
21/28 75% of fluses that don't contain aces
(1-.75)*(.21107)= 5.277

my understanding is that correct answer should be 6.364. Any help would be appreciated. Please Help.

P.S. I'm brand new to this forum, this is my first post so don't be too harsh.