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View Full Version : AK Leading into an x-way limped pot, check my math pls!

Unarmed
01-12-2005, 01:09 PM
NLHE - You have AK in the BB, x limpers to you and you check. Flop comes A-9-4, no two flush. What % of the time do you have the best hand here given x.

Assume players are limping with:

QJ 16
KJ 12
KT 12
A2 8
A3 8
A4 6
A5 8
A6 8
A7 8
A8 8
A9 6
AT 8
22 6
33 6
44 3
55 6
66 6
77 6
88 6
99 3
TT 6
23s 4
34s 3
45s 3
56s 4
67s 4
78s 4
89s 3
9Ts 3
TJs 4
Total 188

You are beat by A4, A9, 44, 99, or 18 hands. Therefore, the probablility you are beat on this flop depending on x are:
x | prob
1 0.0957
2 0.1828
3 0.2619
4 0.3337
5 0.3989
6 0.4580
7 0.5116
8 0.5602
9 0.6042

Look ok?

gaming_mouse
01-12-2005, 06:42 PM
This looks reasonable. But...

1. You can never be that certain of your starting hand assumptions, though they seem reasonable.

2. Depending on the bet and their own looseness, some people will stick around to see 1 or 2 more cards and will outdraw you by the river. This chance is much harder to compute, as it also depends on how they see you as a player and how they interpret whatever bet you make.

gm

sammothebull
01-12-2005, 08:06 PM
Can poker tracker tell you the probability that a certain hand is limped?

gaming_mouse
01-12-2005, 09:11 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Can poker tracker tell you the probability that a certain hand is limped?

[/ QUOTE ]

No. The only data you get from other players is what goes to showdown. Even if you had a database large enough to represent each hand adequately -- and it would have to be HUGE to do this -- the results would still be skewed because certain hands, even when they are limped, are less likely to make it to a showdown.

Of course, PT can accurately tell you what YOU limp yourself.

gm