View Full Version : I like XMSR...over SIRI

Dan Mezick
01-09-2005, 08:05 PM
Satellite radio is going to grow, and for awhile I favored SIRI over XMSR. SIRI subsequently went parabolic and cratered from a high of 9.43 to the current level at around 7. There has been and remains a considerable amount of emotion on the price of SIRI.

At this time I like XMSR much more relative to SIRI, which has an unstable set of chart characteristics.

XMSR has declined from 40 to 34 and sits right at it's longterm trendline. Overall the chart looks healthy (especially relative to SIRI) and I like XMSR at 34 with a protective stop at 33.

SIRI Chart (http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/javachart/javachart.asp?symb=siri&time=&freq=)

XMSR Chart (http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/javachart/javachart.asp?symb=xmsr&draw.x=0&draw.y=0)

I continue to like CCJ. (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=1107326&page=0&view=c ollapsed&sb=5&o=14&fpart=1)

01-10-2005, 11:34 AM
I personally dont think Id be buying either right now, as they both seem pretty fully priced. That being said I think you have a good trade if you buy SIRI tomorrow at about $6.15 as I think you will get a bounce from there back to about $7.40 over the next month. I am short Mar 7 calls and am thinking of covering them tomorrow

Just a guess of course, but thats what my gut is telling me

Dan Mezick
01-10-2005, 12:58 PM
Today provided a 1-time unique buy opp in XMSR, after a guest on CNBC sugested DirecTV may enter he satradio business.

SIRI dropped to near 6 also, quite abit more in % than XMSR.

That's a tell regarding relative strength of XMSR to SIRI.

01-10-2005, 06:55 PM
DTV denied the notion

Dan Mezick
01-10-2005, 08:33 PM
Today was a great opp to get into XMSR under 32.

01-10-2005, 11:04 PM
I sold my XMSR right around the break even point. I don't like it so much anymore. It didn't take off when it got record numbers of subscribers this December. Not sure what a good entry point will be.

01-12-2005, 10:25 PM
Independent of any legitimate analysis, do you think the SIRI stock will go up in the 3rd and 4th Quarter of '05 as Howard Stern will likely pump it relentlessly on his way out the door of broadcast radio?

01-12-2005, 10:47 PM
I don't think that is knowable, so I wouldn't buy stock based on that guesstimate. Clear Channel may bar him from talking about SIRI on there station. Or his pumping may not have much effect, everybody knows it buy know, especially those loyal to Stern.

The other problem is what level of subscription is necessary to get stock holders to support SIRI. Stern is getting like 100 mill. a year so the numbers needed to support that money won't be there for a while. So Wall Street maybe disappointed by good but not great numbers for SIRI/Stern.

01-13-2005, 06:14 PM
xmsr always was the better play but siri is now an index play and could have the better growth going forwards imho.

Dan Mezick
01-13-2005, 09:27 PM
Just my opinon here....Howard Stern is 110% likely "priced in" to SIRI.

Likely, the assumption is that his transition will have no glitches.

If there are any hiccups with Howard, the current set to SIRI shareholders would likely perceive said hiccups as a big "surprise".

If you compare the charts, XMSR has less emotion and a smoother trend. SIRI is currently dominated by the pump-and-dump daytrading community.

It recently displayed very poor price action, dropping to nearly 6 on some discussion of DirectTV getting into the business.