View Full Version : Bad beat probabilitys

01-06-2005, 09:11 AM
Hi all

I would like to get hold of statistics on bad beats.

I have had over 60% bad beats on two pair or better and that on my last 15000 hands.

Of cause I feel that this is way beond probability but I dont have sufficient knowlage.

I am refering to PT statistics on final hand (Misc.Stats tab).

Does anyone know what the mean win rate for hands (final hands) taken to showdown should be. And possably even the standard diviation.


01-06-2005, 03:46 PM
There is no single answer to this, because it depends on how many of your opponents see the flop (and what their range of hands are). Think of it this way:

If you raise every time you get AA, and the people at your table will only call a raise with AK, AQ, KK, or QQ, you're going to win win a very large portion of the time (though most of the time you'll just pick up the blinds). However, if they also start calling with other hands (suited connectors, suited kings, etc), you will win less often but win bigger pots.

Also, having two pair isn't very descriptive. Suppose you have 32o on a 772 board. Sure, you flopped two pair, but how can you expect to have the best hand after two more cards come? Even without the board pairing, on a KQ732 board more hands beat 32o than KQo.