View Full Version : EV charts interesting but accurate?

01-05-2005, 06:18 PM
I found these 2 charts and thought they are both useful, if they are accurate.

1. Enjoy
2. Any thoughts on accuracy?



01-07-2005, 12:22 AM
I think they are only indicative of what your EV would be at Poker Room's limit hold em tables. As is often said, your mileage may vary (and ev would depend on play at each individual site), so I don't know how good they are as an approximation in general of EV at other sites or of poker in general.

Having said that, it is one of the few I have seen online, so it is a start, and it does appear that they update it, because i printed it out 6 months ago and the ev numbers and hand quantity were different.

It is interesting to note that the hand distribution charts from the same site are based on hands that are now almost 3 years old.

The variation for EV for AA alone across the various table levels is from 2.06 at the 1/2 level to 2.30 at the 10/20 level and estimated to be 2.26 at the 25/50 level. I say estimated because, interestingly enough, at the 25/50 level, they don't have enough hands of 7 players or more all playing in the hand where AA is to make a statistically sound ev. (there are more than 10 but less than 50 data points at those sized hands).

This tells you that at all levels below 25/50 there are enough hands with 7-10 people all betting that it happened more than 50 times where someone had AA... Note that if you have that AA with 6-9 callers, your odds of winning the hand are only 34-44%, but when you do win, you win pretty big (6-8 big bets when you DO win 34-44% of the time = 2.72, the ev from 7-10 handed at 1/2).

Hope this helps.

01-07-2005, 12:45 AM
3 things that noticed that raised my eyebrow a little:

1) There are no big losers the second chart. AA has an EV of 2.32 bb, while the worst hand there 32s, only has a -.15 bb EV. This doesnt sit right with me, don't know what though.

2) There are almsot identical occurences of AJs as 32s, so obviously they are counting times dealt, not flops seen. So how can you asign a EV to a folded hand that was never played? maybe thats why the (-) Ev is so small, people just don't lose that much with them because they don't play them.

3) How are some of the unsuited hands more profitable than the suited hands? Not much but enough. 32 is -.14 and 32s is -.15. THe suited hand should be more profitable intuition tells me. But maybe its because the suited gets played more than unsuited, and as such, loses more.

I like the concept of this study. Not sure on the accuracy of this, though.

Just my ramblings