View Full Version : NFL playoff probability

12-20-2004, 12:56 AM
Okay, take the Buffalo Bills.

Right now, they will be in the playoffs if they win their remaining 2 games, and Baltimore, Denver and Jacksonville all go 1-1 over the last 2 weeks.

Assuming each game those 3 teams play is 50/50 that they win, what is the probability the bills make the playoffs?

Just something to tweak your minds this sunday evening (since I cant figure it out). My guess is 1 in 8 or 12%, but I suspect that is incorrect.

12-20-2004, 01:58 AM
I'm assuming that when you say Denver, Baltimore and Jacksonville have to go 1-1, 0-2 will suffice as well. I'm also assuming none of these teams play each other (a fair assumption as they're all in different divisions. I don't feel like looking it up.)

P(Buffalo wins out) = 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/4
P(All 3 teams finish 1-1 or worse) = (3/4)^3 = 27/64

P(B wins out AND All 3 teams finish 1-1 or worse) = 1/4 * 27/64 = 27/256 = .105

12-20-2004, 02:26 PM
the odds are a little less than that, you assume coin flip games(50-50) Buffalo has to beat Pitt the last game and I believe the Jaguars have two relative easy opponents.

12-22-2004, 10:05 AM
hence his assumption