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View Full Version : reverse bad beat - just how big of a longshot did I hit?

DrewOnTilt
12-18-2004, 02:52 PM
I'm curious as to how big of a suckout I pulled on this hand.

Flop was 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

The suckout victim held 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif for a flopped eights full over sevens. I caught runner runner nines to win the pot with nines full /images/graemlins/grin.gif

I figure that to win this pot, I had to catch one of the following:
runner runner 9s
runner runner 10s
runner runner 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif
runner runner 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gifJ /images/graemlins/heart.gif

Did I miss anything on what I needed to catch? And the odds of this happening were what - one in 1500 or so?

gaming_mouse
12-18-2004, 03:30 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I figure that to win this pot, I had to catch one of the following:
runner runner 9s
runner runner 10s
runner runner 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif
runner runner 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gifJ /images/graemlins/heart.gif

Did I miss anything on what I needed to catch? And the odds of this happening were what - one in 1500 or so?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not even close -- it's much lower.

You got all the possibilities tho. We note that since they're mutually exclusive, we can calculate the individual probabilities and add them together. 45 cards are left.

2 9's: (3/45)*(2/44)
2 10's: same
each str8 flush: (2/45)*(1/45)

2*(3/45)*(2/44) + 2*(2/45)*(1/45) = .008

SpaceAce
12-19-2004, 05:52 AM
You guys are both forgetting running sevens which would give the hero four sevens with a ten kicker.

SpaceAce

gaming_mouse
12-19-2004, 06:09 AM
[ QUOTE ]
You guys are both forgetting running sevens which would give the hero four sevens with a ten kicker.

SpaceAce

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice catch.

gm

12-19-2004, 09:14 AM
You are a 109:1 dog on the flop.

DrewOnTilt
12-19-2004, 12:16 PM
[ QUOTE ]
You are a 109:1 dog on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

YES! My odds keep improving with each post. Next time I am in this situation in my \$5-\$10 game and the pot is \$1090 after the flop, I'll remember that /images/graemlins/grin.gif

apd138
12-20-2004, 02:44 AM
Perfect perfect is 989:1 so 1500:1 is not possible.