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damn_river
12-11-2004, 08:43 PM
blinds \$0.10/\$0.25 No Limit Texas Hold'em
9 players

Hero in SB

Seat 1: UTG (\$11.35 in chips)
Seat 9: Hero (\$11.60 in chips)
Seat 10: BB (\$24.75 in chips)

Hero's cards: Ac Qc

UTG: Raise (\$1)
Hero: Call (\$0.90)
BB : Call (\$0.75)

*** FLOP *** : [ 6c Qs Kc ]

Hero: Check
BB: Check
UTG: Bet (\$1.50)
Hero: Raise (\$10.60) All-in

I bet \$11.35 and stood to gain \$22.55, if called by one player. If called by both players, I stood to gain \$33.

Assuming I wasn't winning the hand and was called:
If i just had a flush draw, i would have a 35% chance of winning.
If i have a flush draw and the queen or ace as outs, i would have about 45% chance of winning the hand.
If i have a flush draw and the queen and ace as outs, i would have about 51% chance of winning the hand.

If everyone else folds, i win a pot of \$4.50.

First of all, do you believe it is mathematically correct or incorrect to make a play like this one?
Also, if my math is wrong in my analysis of the situation, please correct me.

damnRiver