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View Full Version : Poker Royale Commentator: Get the Odds Wrong?

Goon2
12-08-2004, 02:47 PM
Let me begin with the only thing I am sure about: I am a math moron.

In hold 'em, we deal almost exclusively in odds. For example, if I have a gutshot with one card to come, I am roughly a 10.5:1 dog to hit one of my four outs. This is to say that over the next 11.5 cards, my out will come once (10.5 times I get a blank, 1 time I hit my out).

The question, then, is how to deal with the percentages. It has been explained to me that if you have a 75% chance of something happening, it is expressed in odds form as 3:1. So, like the example in the preceeding paragraph, for every four times a card comes, I'll miss 3 times and hit once.

I thought I had it all figured out. That is, until I saw the Poker Royale show on GSN last night, and the commentator was talking about how Player A would win the hand 10% (he was drawing to few outs), and Player B would win the hand 90% of the time, making him a 90% favorite.

The announcer said: Player B is a 10:1 favorite.

I thought, that's not right. Player B is a 9:1 favorite. For every 10 times a card comes up, Player B's hand will hold up 9 times. One time the hand will not hold up because Player B will have hit one of his few outs.

I am now wondering whether I have this all screwed up in my mind or if the commentator is wrong. Who is right?

When explaining this to me, assume I know nothing. Thanks.

gaming_mouse
12-08-2004, 03:52 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I am now wondering whether I have this all screwed up in my mind or if the commentator is wrong. Who is right?

[/ QUOTE ]

Your are right. The commentator is wrong. Sounds like you understand it just fine. Don't let it screw with your head.

It might help to remember that the definition of odds is just the ratio of your winning percentage to your losing percentage.

Thuse in the 10%/90% example, the ratio is 1/9 or 9/1. If you're on the losing end of that, we say you're a 9:1 dog. If you have the best of it, you are a 9:1 favorite.

gm

Goon2
12-08-2004, 04:50 PM
Great. I feel better.

I never thought of thinking about it that way (losing %:winning %). Thanks for taking the time.