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View Full Version : Hand probabilities (1pair, 2pair, etc), statistics question

Cerril
12-05-2004, 12:58 PM
I'm not sure where this belongs, but this seems a good spot. The books and software forum didn't work. I've just been trying to figure out some ratios (and this could probably done by pure probability). Basically what I'm looking for is a set of numbers.

For each hand (High Card, 1Pair, 2Pair, etc.), what are your 'percent of total hands,' '% of hands filtered for showdowns,' and 'Win %' (or if you have hard numbers, I'd love to know those)? Anyone with a huge PT database should be able to pull those out. A weighted average over several huge PT databases should give us some very useful numbers

For instance, over a smallish (30k, 2.05BB/100) sample, here are my results:

Type | %Tot | %Show | Win%

HC | 22.51 | 8.57 | 12.02
1P | 43.73 | 37.70 | 34.07
2P | 20.01 | 29.13 | 50.65
3K | 4.65 | 7.91 | 50
St | 3.94 | 5.74 | 80
Fl | 2.82 | 5.64 | 79.04
FH | 2.07 | 4.72 | 81.56
4K | 0.18 | 0.35 | 100
SF | 0.05 | 0.15 | 100

Over a different 10k stretch I noticed many areas varying by upwards of 30% (of the stated value), so I'm fairly sure that the 'real' numbers for the first category and the 'best' numbers for the next two are quite different.

I found this to be a great help in several areas. Especially when looking at winning and losing streaks (over 10k hands, say), it would be a help to find some better numbers to work with. Additionally, I found that even these innacurate numbers helped me in my latest losing streak - I noticed that my 'current' Win% and Show% were out of whack on High Card hands - apparently I'd been showing down high card too often, and it wasn't winning (from 8% show and 12% win to 12% and 8% respectively - pretty drastic). It's possible of course that I was just getting better cards (AK/AQ on boards where I was allowed to be the aggressor the whole way and show down for free), but more likely there were times I was losing 2 extra bets with some hands I should release on the turn. Just watching for these situations has, I think, helped my game immensely.

I'd love to see some more accurate numbers in all categories to give me a good set to compare myself to.