View Full Version : good rally

08-08-2002, 08:20 PM
kept sunw in tech area. ditched csco and emc. took the money from them and bought more sunw. i like csco but i think sunw has more upside. consummer stocks doin good. financials nice recovery. reits doin fine. life is good. ppi number is bullish today. really corporate profits ok this quarter. big cap tech is now a value play who would a figured.

08-08-2002, 08:21 PM
picking up steam. ever since trade deficit number hit us dollar strong. i think us dollar will continue to rally against all major currencies and it should be a good rally.

08-08-2002, 10:08 PM
I would wait until next week before feeling sure of the dollar. As many have pointed out this week this irrational thinking that there should be rate cuts has driven most of the action as people are jumping into treasuries in hopes of beating the train. This action even makes it seem more likely that rates will remain. After all how can the economy that is outperforming most of the world also have its lowest rates? Just seems to me like there is a lot of disconnect out there. Read a survey of top economists for all the banks and almost all don't expect any rate cut, yet the futures markets say about 40% chance next week. Rarely are these two numbers not reconciled with one week and fairly limited data out there to come before the meeting. With the market rallying and money coming back into the dollar, I think it became even less likely. The return of the dollar is inevitable just because as I point out repeatedly, there are no better investments at home for these foreigners. The dollar is highly unlikely to rebound quickly, but I think it will stabilize right about here, close to parity with Euro and 120-125 yen, points where most economists would say there is a fair equilibrium. As for investing, I would be careful after tomorrow. I think it could be one more nice day as people head into the weekend, but next week worries me. News has been flat, just been a "no news is good news" kind of week. The eyes will be on the Fed and I wonder how much the market reacts if the rates are unchanged. I think much of this rally has been rate cut driven so its quite possible the nasty downside comes out if no cut does come. One of the more interesting periods I have seen, where emotion and strange psychology are ruling the day. Nothing seems to be decided right now on fundamentals or common sense, just seems more like what side of the bed investors wake up on.