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sfwusc
11-24-2004, 01:46 PM
what are the odds on two flush happening on a 3 suited board?

I have lost two flushes king high to ace flushes.

SFWUSC

scott8
11-24-2004, 02:15 PM
If you play on party, then the odds are about 50% someone will have a higher flush with 3 cards to the flush on the board.

gaming_mouse
11-24-2004, 02:45 PM
[ QUOTE ]
If you play on party, then the odds are about 50% someone will have a higher flush with 3 cards to the flush on the board.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is absurd.

If you assume that EVERY PLAYER will play ANY TWO suited cards -- and this assumption is wrong, even for party -- and that you are playing a 10-handed game, you calculate as follows:

ncr(45,2) = 990 possible oppo hands left.

ncr(8,2) = 28 oppo hands which make a flush.

Now, to calculate the chance that AT LEAST ONE OTHER flush (not necessarily a higher one) is out there, you do:

1 - (962/990)*(961/989)*(960/988)*(959/987)*(958/986)*(957/985)*(956/984)*(955/983)*(954/982) =.2290

Note again that this is the chance that ANOTHER flush is out against you, not necessarily a higher one. Also note that this is an OVERESTIMATE, because not everyone on party is loose enough to play any two suited cards, although some players are. I would say a more realistic estimate is around 15%.

The chance that the flush is higher depends on your particular cards, obviously.

HTH,
gm

k_squared
11-24-2004, 02:46 PM
[ QUOTE ]
If you play on party, then the odds are about 50% someone will have a higher flush with 3 cards to the flush on the board.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think if you want to be a successful poker player you need to stop looking for the evil gremlins in the party poker closet.

In regards to the original question it is not a common occurence for you to flop a flush and for your opponent to do the same. In fact given your knowledge of your own hand it is less likely for someone else to have the same suited hand as you than anyother combination of hands precisely because you hold 2 of that suit limiting the number remaining in the deck. Furthermore to see a flop come with three of the same suits reduces the chances that they have 2 of those cards even more because you know know where 5 cards of that one suit are.