View Full Version : Using EV for Game Selection?

11-24-2004, 11:37 AM
Searched for this one, but couldn't find it.

I'm just wondering if there is a way to calculate EV for a particular game?

Here's the scenario:

Game 1: A tough home game. Assume 9 opponents for a 10-man game. I'm in top 4 in terms of ability at the game. The game is $20 freezeout hold-'em, winner-take-all. Assume 3 freezeouts/evening. Top 4, including me are all regulars. Remainder are semi-regulars ranging from rocks to maniacs.

Game 2: Cardroom, playing straight $2 limit hold 'em (no increases to $4 on later betting rounds). Lately, I've been top 2 at most tables.

Game 3: Online .25/.50. Lately, running up and down, with a cumulative BB/Hr of 3. Hard to determine my ability vs. other players because game texture changes quickly and dramatically. Never worse than average, though.

I'm faced with all of these possibilities Saturday. While I generally enjoy the home game, us regulars are all about even and we have a real problem with whining and heckling from those that bust out (they want us to just go all-in every hand so they can get on to the next game). I've even had to beat back attempts to increase the frequency of blind escalation after we got heads-up (yes, they thought the short stack would just roll over for that one so they could get on with things!). The organizer, who is one the good regulars, lets it happen because he sees the advantage of the added pressure. It's bad enough that I'm consider taking a break from what has been a very profitable situation for me in the past, as well as a challenging game that has improved my skills. But, I want to understand the implications of the decision on my bankroll.

Thanks for any help.

11-24-2004, 10:30 PM
To get the EV of the first game, you would have to estimate your odds of winning each freezeout, and the time it takes to play each freezeout. If we assume that winning it is about 1 in 6 (seems reasonable given your description), and that each freezeout takes an hour and a half (seems reasonable based on your figure of three freezeouts per night), then your expected gain from each freezeout game is 1/6*$200 - $20 = $13.33. This translates into an expected gain per hour of $8.89.

Keep in mind that this figure is based on the above assumptions, so change them for your EV for game #1.

For games #2-3, you're best method of measuring EV is just to use your estimated BB/hr figure, and determine your hourly winrate (this will depend on whether you are multi-tabling, etc.)