View Full Version : Game Theory Blufiing Question

11-22-2004, 07:14 PM
Well first of all, is there any recommended literature on the topic?

Second -- I think I know the right way to calculate a bluffing percentage for the end card -- BET/POT = BLUFF%. Is this correct? (Bruce Z?)

Finally, and the real point of this post/thread. Is there a way to calculate the theoretically proper frequency of semi-bluffing or, for that matter, slowplay with more cards to come (I am interested primarily in Hold 'Em)?

The question arose because a poster on another thread claimed with absolute certainty that he knew a player would not bet top pair in a certain situation (but would rather go for the check raise every time). This got me to thinking that I had better create a strategy for sometimes leading with a good hand, or sometimes not, with some deceptive randomness thrown in when the players are very good.

11-22-2004, 11:41 PM
Theory of Poker has a chapter on it. Here's a quote which answers your question:

When using game theory to decide when to bluff, you must determine the pot odds your opponent is getting if you bet and then randomly bluff in such a way that the odds against your bluffing are identical to or almost identical to your opponent's pot odds. If your opponent is getting 5-to-1, the odds against your bluffing should be 5-to-1.