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View Full Version : PLO hi/lo \$0.50/\$1 Should I have folded?

grandgnu
11-20-2004, 01:37 AM
I had the 3/4 of hearts and was on the BB and the flop was A/A/2 with the A/2 being hearts. Just needed the 5 of hearts for the straight flush or any low card other than a 3 or 4 for the nut low.

Two other players stuck around and were raising it up, and the turn was a K of diamonds. One guy went all-in for about 9 bucks and another guy raised it to 18 bucks. There was about 45-50 bucks in the pot and I figured if I could catch a low card or the miracle straight flush I could make a boatload on the pot.

I debated folding, I hate chasing hands when I'm up against an obvious made boat, but I called it and the river was a 9. *sigh*

So after the guy bet out again I had no choice but to fold, and he held A/2. Did I make the right call? I'm pretty sure I did. I prefer to have more players in the hand to increase my possible profit with a draw like that, but figured there was so much money going in I had to take a stab at it.

Wound up losing 25 bucks into that pot, although kept my showdown win rate at 100%. By the way, was sitting on 150 bucks at the table, player who was already all-in only had about 20 bucks and the other player had around 115 total. Did I make the right play by sticking around or should I have ran?

cielo
11-20-2004, 04:33 AM
OK, given the calculations I provide below you should fold to the \$18 bet on the turn.

Here's why:

For the low...

Given that I do not know what your other two hole cards are I proceed as follows,

52 cards - (your 2 hole cards) - (Ah Ax 2h Kd) = 46 unknown
cards

you have

16 outs (4 5s, 4 6s, 4 7s, 4 8s)

so

46 cards left
16 outs

When you win, you win \$25 (1/2 of \$50)
When you lose, you lose \$18 (fold to bet on river)

(\$25 per winner) x (16 winners) = +\$400
(\$18 per loser) x (30 losers) = -\$540
_______
-\$140
-140/46 trys = -\$3.05 per try

your odds only get worse if you know that one of more of your other hole cards are a 5,6,7 or 8.

Therefore calling for the low draw is -EV

As for the straight flush draw

Cards left 44 (because you don't have the 5h, right?)

When you win,
you win \$50 from pot plus I'll assume you get his entire stack every time, about \$90 more at this point, right?

so when you win, you win \$140

when you lose, you lose \$18 (fold to bet on river)

(1 winner) x (\$140) = +140
(43 losers)x (\$18) = -774
______
-\$634
-\$634/44 trys = -\$14.41 per try (on an \$18 call)Very -EV /images/graemlins/frown.gif

So, I am not sure how to put these two numbers together,
but I doubt they would end up making you money in the long run.

Regarding the straight flush draw, I also tend to at first think of drawing for them, without realizing pot odds, just because, "Hey, it's a straight flush", however, it's just like drawing to any other nut hand IN THAT it is unbeatable. As nice as that may be, in this case, it was a -EV call. Unless of course I screwed up my math somewhere, which is certainly a possibility.