View Full Version : my picks....questions....results

06-04-2002, 05:51 PM

I am not a regular poster here but I do read most of the posts.

I am not an expert stock picker in any way and consider myself to be a novice even though I have made money.


My last post I asked what people thought of XMSR (XM Satellite Radio)

Most of you thought it was a bad product as well.

Anyway I followed it and shorted it like I said at about 16 or so in Feb. I am now happy it is at 8. I think this is a much fairer price and sold it at that.

My next predictions I would like your thoughts on as well

The two other stocks I now want to short are…….

PYPL (Paypal)

Paypal I think is still overvalued. They have horrible customer service. They have negative EPS. They are also involved in a class action lawsuit. Even though they offer a good product I don’t think they are making that much money. It seems to me they have a lot of competition now (firepay, neteller and large banks). I think they are branching out too fast and have to big of an overhead. The ebay market has been slowing down as well as an online gambling crackdown, which gives paypal a lot of business. By the way they are near their 52-week high.

My questions…..

What do you guys think about PYPL?

I tried to short PYPL last week on Etrade (it was up that day) and it said there were no shares available to borrow! I didn’t short that many shares. Why is this happening? PYPL’s volume is high.

I am less sure about my other pick. It is MCD (McDonalds)

I want to short it. I don’t like the fact that MCD is still making money and has a +EPS. I realize MCD is still huge around the world but it is taking a hard hit in the US. There is so much competition and its competitors are really doing a good job (Wendys, Carls, KFC ect) I read that MCD has had losses the past 5 quarters. I think there 39-cent burger craze is over as well. MCD also has one of the largest holdings of real estate in the US, which scares me because even though they are hurting now they are still solid.

MCD is looking to buy some more restaurant chains which might hurt profits at first. Lastly they said MCD is going to expand their company to selling more than just food. The article I read mentioned they might start selling retail items or banking/financial services out of their restaurants. That seemed shocking as well. I can’t imagine the public would like that at first, especially the older generations which have still been supporting MCD over the years.

What are your guy’s thoughts on shorting MCD?

I think MCD will do fine in the long run but will take a hard hit in the next year or so.

My other questions are….

I read that small cap stocks over the years are much easier to “beat” and have outperformed large cap, blue chip, tech etc. Is this true? How could I learn more about small cap stocks? Is anyone trading them?

I would like to know what other trades and speculations you guys are making as well as your results. I would like to know if anyone and who is really making money in the short term trading.

Thanks a lot for reading and I am looking forward to your replies.

Brian R

06-04-2002, 07:03 PM
ive got cash, ive got some reits and treasuries. defensive portfolio. i like to make comments about market as whole rather than stocks. hard to miss shorting NAZ stocks. tempting to short qqq but im passing for now. rather look for long opps. nothin wrong with shortin though. if you read my posts you know im thinkin that markets are correcting for irrational exuberance of 90's.

06-08-2002, 01:12 AM
Babe trades QQQ and the OEX (S&P 100) index. I am ready to go long both of these as I think we are setting up for a rally. Today's action was a possible bounce from an oversold condition and I like buying OEX in-the-money calls when this occurs. I also like JPM and GE at these levels. Babe

06-08-2002, 01:33 AM
they came a long way back today. i read too many internet boards im pretty spooked by all the stuff goin round about GE accounting issues. also readin stuff about JPM off balance sheet derivatives as potential for disaster. i got too much time on my hands lol. really i dont have a clue if there is any truth to any of it. two reasons i dont like qqq i think the big caps are still overpriced like intc, csco, and msft. too early in business cycle for companies to do a lot of capital investment. but the tech stocks did a pretty good job of rallying off the lows this mornin and msft actually hung in well. qqq real close to 9/11 lows so could be time for a rally. S&P hardly off at all today. vix got to 30 and market turned around. should be interestin on monday.

06-08-2002, 12:05 PM
Anony- Yes, oversold rally coming on Q's and OEX - VIX is your friend. Remember...volatility always picks up prior to a reveral of trend. JPM and GE are LONG term buys, IMO. Love em both. Every corporation in America is getting bad press now. That is when you "buy low - sell high". Dividend kickers are great now. Also, you can buy em and sell covered calls for an extra "kick". Babe

06-08-2002, 02:44 PM
well, i think you're either rihjt or wrong..lol...

but sp500 at very key level now...if it goes up...probably safe to climb on board, however..i feel it is due for a free fall..jmho..info purposes only...what happens if the smart money that got in right after 9-11 bail out??katie bar the door...gl

06-09-2002, 12:34 AM

06-11-2002, 07:22 AM
i think you're right oh greatest of all pokerbabes...i am now short term bullish...advs, bldp, bmy,jmho...gl