View Full Version : flopping quads

11-13-2004, 07:15 AM
I'm sure this topic has been discussed before but I did a search and couldnt find much. Im wondering about the odds of flopping quads when you have a PP. It seems to me that it would be 1/50 * 1/49, or 2450 to 1. Is this right? The reason I ask is because I have flopped quads 7 times in my last 10,000 hands which seems way high. If it is in fact 1 in 2450 when you hav a PP then wouldnt that mean it is 1 in 41650 before knowing whether you have a PP or not? If thats the case then 7 times is 10,000 hands is obviosly pretty strange statistically...

BTW, out of those 7 times, 5 of the times it was with Pocket 7s. What are the odds of that /images/graemlins/smile.gif

11-13-2004, 02:12 PM
I don't know what the odds are, but I know that your method is dealing with a two card flop, and specifies the order in which you must catch your 2 quad outs, so the odds are much better than 1 in 2450.

11-13-2004, 04:04 PM
Oh ya thats a good point. Thanks, It was late....lol

11-13-2004, 05:13 PM
also, even if it was 2 card flop scenario,

it would be 1/25 * 1/49.

11-13-2004, 08:31 PM
Arite,I think I got a formula for it.
(48/50)*(2/49)*(1/48) + (2/50)*(1/49) + (2/50)*(48/49)*(1/48)= Probability of floppign quads when holding a pocket pair.

OK, just did it out, I think the odds are 407+1/3 to 1 against.

Lost Wages
11-13-2004, 09:19 PM
Given that you hold a pocket pair:

There are (50*49*48)/(3*2) = 19,600 possible flops.
1*1*48 = 48 of them will give you quads.
Probability of flopping quads = 48/19,600 = .24%
Odds = (19,600-48):48 = 407.3:1

Lost Wages

11-14-2004, 06:06 PM
Thanks for the replies guys.