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View Full Version : Probability of Min versus Indi scoring exactly 28 points

joedot
11-08-2004, 11:40 PM
Any way to figure the probability of these two teams scoring exactly 28 points in the 2nd half of their game? TIA

Lost Wages
11-09-2004, 05:34 PM
I think (hope) that it is obvious that you cannot calculate the probabilty of outcomes in sporting events the way you can with flipping cards or rolling dice.

Lost wages

Leo99
11-09-2004, 08:51 PM
I figure there's some distribution of total points for two teams in the NFL. Say any two teams with an average of say 20 points total. If you took all the over/unders for the week or the year and averaged them you have a total for the any game. Divide that in half and you be around 20. Or you could take all the NFL games for the year, or last two years or whatever and come up with an average for the second half combined with a standard deviation. You'd have to go back and figure out every game's second half for the past 3 years and see how many times 28 came up. I'd guess 2-10% of the time. I'd bet a \$1 to win \$20 on that. Hmm, maybe I'd bet \$1 to win \$35. That sounds better.